别轻易相信“成功的临床实验”！
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">文|菠萝</strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">“菠萝，我刚看到xx药临床<span style="color: black;">实验</span>成功的<span style="color: black;">信息</span>！请问哪里能买到？”</strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">新药成功的<span style="color: black;">信息</span>让人兴奋，我非常理解。但菠萝请<span style="color: black;">大众</span>转发之前慢一点，<span style="color: black;">由于</span><span style="color: black;">这儿</span>面水太深了，一不小心就中招。</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">网上看到的<span style="color: black;">实验</span>成功，不<span style="color: black;">必定</span>能帮到<span style="color: black;">大众</span>！</strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">原由</span>是多方面的。</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">(一)</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">最大最大的问题：<span style="color: black;">非常多</span>“<span style="color: black;">媒介</span>”<span style="color: black;">爱好</span>夸大炒作。</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">营销号当然是重灾区。<span style="color: black;">她们</span>毫<span style="color: black;">没</span>专业素养，<span style="color: black;">善于</span>吹牛，能把蜗牛吹成牦牛，白菜吹成白粉。</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">例如</span><span style="color: black;">近期</span>横空出世几个澳洲<span style="color: black;">相关</span>的营销号，简直把澳洲吹<span style="color: black;">成为了</span>宇宙抗癌中心。菠萝会单独写一篇技术帖来分析<span style="color: black;">她们</span>是怎么移花接木，添枝加叶的。</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">除了自<span style="color: black;">媒介</span>，传统<span style="color: black;">媒介</span>中的专业记者<span style="color: black;">亦</span>可能乱来。</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">去年闹得沸沸扬扬的“小苏打治癌症”<span style="color: black;">资讯</span>，<span style="color: black;">便是</span>典型例子。一个本来不错的<span style="color: black;">初期</span>临床研究，被不懂的记者活活搞<span style="color: black;">成为了</span>伪科学<span style="color: black;">资讯</span>。</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">媒介</span>和<span style="color: black;">科研</span>者应该是好队友，<span style="color: black;">一块</span>把科学前沿信息<span style="color: black;">即时</span>传播给<span style="color: black;">公众</span>。但有时候难免有猪队友。</p>
<div style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><img src="https://pic1.zhimg.com/80/v2-b13cf77f1ef85c92e0a3d723eb4b6064_720w.webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></div>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">（二）</strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">即使面临<span style="color: black;">无</span><span style="color: black;">显著</span>夸大的<span style="color: black;">资讯</span>，<span style="color: black;">亦</span>要非常<span style="color: black;">小心</span>。</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">大众</span><span style="color: black;">首要</span><span style="color: black;">必须</span>寻找的<span style="color: black;">重要</span>信息是：这个成功的临床<span style="color: black;">实验</span>到底是几期？</strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">临床<span style="color: black;">实验</span><span style="color: black;">一般</span>分为3期，每一期对“成功”的定义截然不同。</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">1期临床<span style="color: black;">实验</span>，<span style="color: black;">重点</span>任务是检验<span style="color: black;">药品</span>的安全性，而不是有效性</strong>。<span style="color: black;">因此呢</span>，<span style="color: black;">针对</span>抗癌药<span style="color: black;">来讲</span>，理论上只要<span style="color: black;">无</span>吃死人，1期临床<span style="color: black;">实验</span>就<span style="color: black;">能够</span>叫成功。</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">例如</span>，我<span style="color: black;">研发</span>了个抗癌新药：糖水菠萝。做1期临床<span style="color: black;">实验</span>，<span style="color: black;">病人</span>吃了非常安全，即使完全<span style="color: black;">无</span>看出抗癌效果，我仍然<span style="color: black;">能够</span>大肆宣传说“糖水菠萝临床<span style="color: black;">实验</span>大获成功！”</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">况且</span>我确实没说谎。</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">但这显然不是<span style="color: black;">病人</span>想象中那种成功，极容易<span style="color: black;">显现</span>误导。</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">糖水菠萝当然是个笑话，但现实中，有不少<span style="color: black;">机构</span><span style="color: black;">便是</span>靠<span style="color: black;">大众</span>对临床<span style="color: black;">实验</span>的不熟悉，大肆吹捧<span style="color: black;">初期</span>临床<span style="color: black;">实验</span>“大获成功“，圈钱造势，大发横财。</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">（三）</strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">初期</span>临床<span style="color: black;">实验</span>成功要<span style="color: black;">小心</span>看待的另一个<span style="color: black;">原由</span>：<strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">初期</span>成功的<span style="color: black;">药品</span>，绝大<span style="color: black;">都数</span>依然会失败。</strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">有人统计了2006-2015年进入临床<span style="color: black;">实验</span>的3163个抗癌新药，<span style="color: black;">发掘</span><strong style="color: blue;">1期成功<span style="color: black;">药品</span>里<span style="color: black;">亦</span><span style="color: black;">仅有</span>8%能上市，2期成功的，仍然<span style="color: black;">仅有</span>33%</strong>
</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">。</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">初期</span>临床<span style="color: black;">实验</span>的成功之<span style="color: black;">因此</span>靠不住，<span style="color: black;">重点</span>是<span style="color: black;">由于</span>随机<span style="color: black;">原因</span>太大。<span style="color: black;">因为</span><span style="color: black;">初期</span><span style="color: black;">实验</span>参与<span style="color: black;">病人</span>较少（<span style="color: black;">一般</span>几十人），生物学的<span style="color: black;">繁杂</span>性会带来<span style="color: black;">非常多</span>偶然<span style="color: black;">原因</span>，看到的结果可能仅仅是巧合。</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">最典型的<span style="color: black;">便是</span><strong style="color: blue;">取样偏差</strong>。</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">举个例子，假设咱们要测试“上海人是不是比东北人高？”</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">做个1期<span style="color: black;">实验</span>，随机上街找5个上海人和5个东北人。正巧碰到姚明一家和潘长江一家......于是我得出1期<span style="color: black;">实验</span>结论：“上海人平均身高远超东北人！<span style="color: black;">乃至</span>远超世界任何国家！”</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">但显然，事实上并非如此。</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">仅有</span>招募几百，几千人做比较（2期和3期<span style="color: black;">实验</span>），随机性才会大大降低，你<span style="color: black;">才可</span><span style="color: black;">发掘</span>真相。</p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">类似的<span style="color: black;">原由</span>，每年都有好几个<span style="color: black;">初期</span>临床看起来非常不错的药，到了参与<span style="color: black;">病人</span>多的3期临床，<span style="color: black;">忽然</span>效果就没了，<span style="color: black;">引起</span>失败。</p>
回顾历史，我们感慨万千；放眼未来，我们信心百倍。 谢谢、感谢、感恩、辛苦了、有你真好等。 谷歌外贸网站优化技术。 回顾历史，我们感慨万千；放眼未来，我们信心百倍。
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