股票入门基本知识丨找到了,汽车独一低估龙头,业绩大增100%,60家企业抱团,A股就这一家!
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/DBx4RyztT75cuh8x63XTgt4PGH5AVpRE0cBcXmsGuhq0040JRtFlomjfEgyiayCS6KicpqxgncUZVlibSxtIM39XQ/640?wx_fmt=png&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;">【点击名片关注↓↓↓,免费领牛股选股器】</strong></strong></span></p><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">标签</span><span style="color: black;">:</span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">股票</span><span style="color: black;">入门<span style="color: black;">基本</span>知识</span></span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">整体,回暖?</span></strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">汽配<span style="color: black;">行业</span>,<span style="color: black;">始终</span>是成长性很高的赛道。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">不论高阶智驾、线<span style="color: black;">掌控</span>动、空气悬架还是热管理,单拉出来都是千亿级别的大市场,<span style="color: black;">因此呢</span>德赛西威、伯特利、</span><span style="color: black;">三花智控</span><span style="color: black;">等<span style="color: black;">机构</span>,自</span></span><span style="color: black;">2021</span>年新能源汽车起量后,业绩均实现大幅增长。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">况且</span>,汽配<span style="color: black;">机构</span><span style="color: black;">更加多</span>对接</span><span style="color: black;">B</span><span style="color: black;">端企业,而非</span><span style="color: black;">C</span><span style="color: black;">端用户,确定性<span style="color: black;">亦</span>更好。</span></span></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">相较于整车厂,汽配<span style="color: black;">机构</span><span style="color: black;">把握</span>的核心技术<span style="color: black;">更加多</span>。<span style="color: black;">例如</span>卧龙电驱、</span><span style="color: black;">拓普集团</span><span style="color: black;">、北特科技,除了为汽车<span style="color: black;">供给</span>零部件外,更大的成长点转移到了人形<span style="color: black;">设备</span>人、飞行汽车等方向。</span></span></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/ibuagpVmdGGlEFWY4XmzsXqlLw3uRXicMzLkeFicD2As639p4xvib0M98fMwkZ9PYhnbAB0GdlNf0CeNO30u48hhKA/640?wx_fmt=other&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">当然,除了关注空气悬架、HUD和电子后视镜这种低渗透率、高成长性的<span style="color: black;">制品</span>,汽车座椅、轮胎行业的回暖,<span style="color: black;">亦</span>值得关注。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">2024年以来,<span style="color: black;">因为</span><span style="color: black;">外边</span><span style="color: black;">原因</span>,海运价格整体呈上涨趋势,7月份才<span style="color: black;">起始</span>回落。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/ibuagpVmdGGlEFWY4XmzsXqlLw3uRXicMztTXY1gpCpsYzWY28Pr8fvHaIT1ozMLGwBicVNR7JLwuialic7KHrjoCjg/640?wx_fmt=other&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">通常</span><span style="color: black;">来讲</span>,海运价格波动,轮胎、空调、冰箱等体积大、单位价值偏低的<span style="color: black;">制品</span>,受到影响<span style="color: black;">很强</span>;箱包、首饰等<span style="color: black;">制品</span>,<span style="color: black;">花费</span><span style="color: black;">敏锐</span>性则低了<span style="color: black;">非常多</span>。</span></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">令人惊喜的是,汽车轮胎行业中除了青岛双星净利润预亏,</span><span style="color: black;">赛轮轮胎</span><span style="color: black;">、玲珑轮胎、森麒麟等头部<span style="color: black;">机构</span>,业绩均实现<span style="color: black;">显著</span>放量。像赛轮轮胎、森麒麟上半年净利润预计翻倍,通用股份的净利润增速,最高<span style="color: black;">达到</span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">416.5%</span></span>,超出预期。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">这说明,行业整体的景气度,有了<span style="color: black;">显著</span>回升!</span></strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/ibuagpVmdGGlEFWY4XmzsXqlLw3uRXicMzUbibf6icCdRvg9Gd91E2MSlMmicSrRumaSVlpRW3GzRp9QAbhojpTXgicA/640?wx_fmt=other&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">其中,森麒麟<span style="color: black;">优良</span>最为<span style="color: black;">明显</span>,表现为这两点:</span></strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">第1</span>,</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">制品</span>端。</span></strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">机构</span><span style="color: black;">位置于</span>山东青岛,<span style="color: black;">制品</span>有航空轮胎、半钢</span><span style="color: black;">子午线轮胎</span><span style="color: black;">和全钢子午线轮胎,旗下有森麒麟(SENTURY)、路航(LANDSAIL)、德林特(DELINTE)、吉翔速(GROUNDSPEED)四大轮胎品牌。</span></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">日前</span>,<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>仅10家<span style="color: black;">机构</span>有能力可生产航空轮胎,森麒麟<span style="color: black;">便是</span>其中之一。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">凭借<span style="color: black;">制品</span>端的领先<span style="color: black;">优良</span>,森麒麟已<span style="color: black;">作为</span>小鹏汇天飞行汽车指定的轮胎供应商,跟</span><span style="color: black;">中国商飞</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">亦</span>已开展合作。汽车轮胎客户更广泛,覆盖<span style="color: black;">公众</span>、奥迪、奇瑞、吉利等。</span></span></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">第二,</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">盈利端。</span></strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">毛利率,是<span style="color: black;">机构</span><span style="color: black;">制品</span>力跟竞争壁垒的<span style="color: black;">第1</span>道<span style="color: black;">表现</span>。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">受益于航空轮胎的高端化定位、出海结构占比大,森麒麟的盈利能力在业内排名<span style="color: black;">第1</span>,远超玲珑轮胎、赛轮轮胎等业内龙头。<span style="color: black;">况且</span>,2023年<span style="color: black;">机构</span>ROE为14.61%,比恒瑞医药还高。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/ibuagpVmdGGlEFWY4XmzsXqlLw3uRXicMzHpTR8RdkkkDhTd0cfPBIolJBAOIibHeTLwz6oUt7XBUcq7j9ALR0z8w/640?wx_fmt=other&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">不仅如此,盈利端的强势,还<span style="color: black;">表现</span>在<span style="color: black;">机构</span>快速攀升的业绩上。</span></strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">因为</span>原材料价格、海运<span style="color: black;">花费</span>齐升,2021年森麒麟净利润为近几年最低点,自此后开启强势增长,2021-2023年净利润年复合增速高达34.78%。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">2024年<span style="color: black;">第1</span>季度,<span style="color: black;">机构</span>业绩<span style="color: black;">更加是</span>得到有力修复,实现营收21.15亿,同比<span style="color: black;">增多</span>27.59%,实现净利润5.04亿,增速达到了101.34%。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/ibuagpVmdGGlEFWY4XmzsXqlLw3uRXicMzk71U0QTDvMZt9vzdl06RmXxH483O1nAZNabZ1OCgKhDfw23ZwLO1cg/640?wx_fmt=other&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">而业绩的增长,则来自于<span style="color: black;">制品</span>的量价齐升。从经营数据图表中,能<span style="color: black;">显著</span>看到:</span></strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">一方面,数量上。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">因为</span>客户数量<span style="color: black;">持续</span>突破,带动<span style="color: black;">机构</span>轮胎销量<span style="color: black;">连续</span>增长,2023年实现轮胎销量2926万条,同比大增29.3%。2024年<span style="color: black;">第1</span>季度轮胎产量807万条,同比增长28%,仍延续了成长势头。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/ibuagpVmdGGlEFWY4XmzsXqlLw3uRXicMzF2libc7oiabib58PeRuscZbibJhbickcacLvcwlKZeJphxwNSyQIRYwYwcA/640?wx_fmt=other&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">另一方面,价格上。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">因为</span>大尺寸<span style="color: black;">制品</span>放量和品牌力的<span style="color: black;">提高</span>,2020-2023年<span style="color: black;">机构</span>轮胎单价从234元/条上涨至275元/条,价格增幅为17.52%,基本呈稳定增长的状态。森麒麟定位中高端轮胎,<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>来看价格增长的弹性会更大。</span></p><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">另一</span>,海外市场的开拓,<span style="color: black;">亦</span>将<span style="color: black;">加强</span>森麒麟利润端的表现。</span></strong>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">2023年森麒麟海外营收占比86.87%,是可比<span style="color: black;">机构</span>中最高的,并且海外的毛利率比国内<span style="color: black;">广泛</span>高4%-5%,<span style="color: black;">机构</span>的业绩爆发性<span style="color: black;">亦</span>会更强<span style="color: black;">有些</span>。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/ibuagpVmdGGlEFWY4XmzsXqlLw3uRXicMzbMktDJBF1bfQTCm16ibmib2QZasZ8kxNOLcBXcNic69eD3LQzicckfCvZw/640?wx_fmt=other&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">泰国是天然橡胶的<span style="color: black;">重点</span>生产地,<span style="color: black;">亦</span>是森麒麟最大的海外生产基地,每年营收占比在50%<span style="color: black;">上下</span>。2024年1月,森麒麟在泰国的<span style="color: black;">制品</span>税率降至1.24%,降低了15.82%,有利于<span style="color: black;">机构</span>在海外市场发展和盈利端的进一步加强。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">在<span style="color: black;">将来</span>,森麒麟的成长性依旧不减,<span style="color: black;">表现</span>在这两个方面:</span></strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">1.</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">汽车轮胎:存量替换<span style="color: black;">需要</span>大,国产替代上行。</span></strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">汽车轮胎属于消耗品,增量市场与汽车产量<span style="color: black;">关联</span>,存量市场则来自于轮胎的替换<span style="color: black;">需要</span>。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">预计2026年,国内生产配套轮胎市场空间<span style="color: black;">达到</span>3600亿元,替换轮胎的市场规模约2950亿元,总市场规模6550亿元,依然有着非常庞大的市场。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/ibuagpVmdGGlEFWY4XmzsXqlLw3uRXicMzduiaG4zJCEwWUqRtEMGCYlrtvKvTOBedr9o75aMqupJJscicjIfFEW6A/640?wx_fmt=other&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">从市场格局看,<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>轮胎市场竞争比较激烈,米其林、普利司通、固特异三家市占率之和为41%,与福耀玻璃一家的市场份额相近,汽车轮胎的消费品属性凸显。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">而<span style="color: black;">伴同</span>品牌力<span style="color: black;">加强</span>,国内品牌有着不小替代空间。</span></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/ibuagpVmdGGlEFWY4XmzsXqlLw3uRXicMzrvib16BN5iaSjgBbbe6LVtWs2icVBUJsYAA2UJX3v5rpTianeJUazggRVQ/640?wx_fmt=other&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">日前</span>,森麒麟在国内外共有五个生产基地,<span style="color: black;">所有</span>达产后,年产能5700万条,产能相较2023年<span style="color: black;">提高</span>了90%,业绩可增长一倍。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">况且</span>,<span style="color: black;">机构</span>汽车轮胎<span style="color: black;">制品</span>,以17英寸及以上轮毂尺寸为主,最大<span style="color: black;">达到</span>32寸,技术<span style="color: black;">处在</span>世界一流水平。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">2.</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">航空轮胎:商用大飞机</span><span style="color: black;">+</span><span style="color: black;">飞行汽车,打开全新成长极。</span></span></strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">森麒麟很早就跟中国商飞签署合作协议,为其国产大飞机供货。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">日前</span>,<span style="color: black;">机构</span><span style="color: black;">已然</span>是中国商飞ARJ21-700航空轮胎的正式供应商,<span style="color: black;">亦</span>已成功进入C909、C919的供应商名单,成功打破了民用航空轮胎被米其林、普利司通、固特异垄断的局面。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">预计2023年<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>飞机轮胎的市场规模为18亿元,2033年<span style="color: black;">达到</span>33亿元。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/ibuagpVmdGGlEFWY4XmzsXqlLw3uRXicMzFk2PjMichAO6p34thbgfTicOPyKZIo2cYRicro2QianK0LiaPthibESWkR5Q/640?wx_fmt=other&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">能生产航空轮胎的<span style="color: black;">机构</span>本就不多,<span style="color: black;">将来</span>国内航空轮胎的大部分市场势必在森麒麟手中。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">机构</span>产能建设<span style="color: black;">亦</span>跟得上,当下年产能8万条的航空轮胎项目正顺利推进,可用于通用飞机、无人</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">机和飞行汽车等,<span style="color: black;">亦</span>成功拿下小鹏汇天的轮胎项目订单。</span></span></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">总的来看,</span></strong><span style="color: black;">凭借技术和盈利<span style="color: black;">优良</span>,森麒麟<span style="color: black;">已然</span><span style="color: black;">作为</span>业内的佼佼者,在飞行汽车<span style="color: black;">行业</span>的<span style="color: black;">制品</span>布局,<span style="color: black;">亦</span>令其具备更大成长空间。<span style="color: black;">机构</span><span style="color: black;">日前</span>估值偏低,后续有望迎来业绩与估值的戴维斯双击。</span></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">截止</span></span><span style="color: black;">2024</span><span style="color: black;">上半年,共</span><span style="color: black;">61</span><span style="color: black;">家<span style="color: black;">公司</span>抢筹(<span style="color: black;">连续</span>统计中)。</span></span></span></p><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">【点击名片关注↓↓↓,免费领牛股选股器】</strong></span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/DBx4RyztT758ib4EU0l7XRwnRoPhBOzUx247C9wPmItSicv626icYDVJFzc8hYF8e2xiahzIVfMuWU41aia3Qnr1ictg/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
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