【广发证券】策略对话传媒：迎接新一轮场景革命
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">策略 戴康/杨泽蓁、传媒 旷实/叶敏婷/毛玥</span></strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/6ocBYwxjg5qtNDRKIDfNqiaNgcF8RJsAdWe7pL5nlocVl9ZrNWicibTAC1JhLksiaR1fYQzeNpXibchp2BjdPLUs1UA/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></span></strong></p><strong style="color: blue;">报告摘要</strong><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">● </span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">引言：</span></strong><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>自23.3.2<span style="color: black;">连续</span>九篇报告<span style="color: black;">举荐</span>数字经济机遇，判断AI的“奇点时刻”<span style="color: black;">已然</span>到来，将贯穿23年投资机遇。广发传媒互联网组自23.2.8连续26篇报告<span style="color: black;">连续</span><span style="color: black;">跟踪</span>AI+&数字经济产业动向，<span style="color: black;">连续</span>看好AI+行情下，新一轮场景革命带来的传媒互联网板块发展机遇。本篇<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>联合广发传媒，以问答形式全面解析AI主线中的传媒行业投资机会。</span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">● <span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">策略：</span></strong></span></span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">把握“造风者”红利，迎接新一轮场景革命</span></strong></span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">。</span></strong></span></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">（1）短期视角：</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;">传媒兼具盈利预期高弹性(△g)、低估值、筹码结构干净三重属性，<span style="color: black;">因此呢</span>尽管短期无业绩兑现、股价<span style="color: black;">也</span>上涨斜率陡峭。</span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">（2）中期视角：</strong></span><span style="color: black;">历史上新能源车、互联网、智能手机等经验来看，产业投资中期最重要的是选出核心环节龙头并持有（如新能源车选出动力电池），即把握“造风者”红利。“造风者”核心特征是①高技术密集型、微笑曲线左端，是产业链降本增效关键环节；②高附加值，<span style="color: black;">常常</span>可占据产业链更高价值量；③呈龙头化趋势。映射当下，AI大模型或是产业链核心环节之一，关注“头部玩家”互联网大厂。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">（3）<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>视角：</strong></span><span style="color: black;">视线放长远，若To-C端<span style="color: black;">商场</span>模式打通、降本增效/收入增量兑现，AI可能引领新的场景革命，关注“AI+”应用端投资机遇（AI+游戏/办公/IP/营销/教育等）。</span></p><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">● </span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">对话传媒：七问七答，AI+引领的场景革命将<span style="color: black;">怎样</span>演绎？</span></strong>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">Q1：<span style="color: black;">怎样</span>看待本轮AI+传媒行情？是主题还是产业趋势？</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">答：</span>是产业变革机遇。大模型产业技术侧大变革有望带来<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>经济增长斜率的<span style="color: black;">提高</span>。</span></p><span style="color: black;">Q2：</span><span style="color: black;">传媒视角看，本轮“AI+”行情和13-15年“移动互联网+”行情有何异同？</span><span style="color: black;">相同在于都是技术革命、C端应用落地有望是行情蔓延节点；<span style="color: black;">区别</span>在于内容监管、资产证券化、短期的业绩增量。</span><span style="color: black;">Q3：</span><span style="color: black;">AI+传媒互联网向大模型和应用落地两方向演绎，<span style="color: black;">首要</span><span style="color: black;">怎样</span>看大模型投资机遇？</span><span style="color: black;">数据、算力、算法是 “三驾马车”，大厂天然具备<span style="color: black;">优良</span>。</span><span style="color: black;">Q4：下游应用端，AI有望赋能传媒<span style="color: black;">那些</span>赛道？<span style="color: black;">怎样</span>赋能？</span><span style="color: black;">关注细分<span style="color: black;">行业</span>有落地场景，较为稳健的品种：AI+游戏、AI+办公、AI+IP、AI+教育、AI+营销、AI+电商、AI+VR等。</span><span style="color: black;">Q5：</span><span style="color: black;">在<span style="color: black;">以上</span>各赛道中，<span style="color: black;">那些</span><span style="color: black;">行业</span>今年可能率先观察到收入兑现或降本增效？</span><span style="color: black;">当前时点模型侧和下游应用端短期内预计<span style="color: black;">没法</span>看到<span style="color: black;">显著</span>业绩增量，国内外头部大厂相继加码下，AI+营销、AI+办公或将更快变现。</span><span style="color: black;">Q6：站在当前时点，<span style="color: black;">怎样</span>看待行情<span style="color: black;">连续</span>性和后续演绎？</span><span style="color: black;">AI行情主线有望继续朝着以下方向演绎：一是具备大模型能力的生态大厂及产业链<span style="color: black;">机构</span>；二是细分<span style="color: black;">行业</span>有落地场景，<span style="color: black;">将来</span>有望<span style="color: black;">连续</span>受益的赛道和<span style="color: black;">机构</span>。</span><span style="color: black;">Q7：<span style="color: black;">详细</span>有<span style="color: black;">那些</span>值得关注的标的？</span><span style="color: black;">详见正文。</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">● </span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">危害</span>提示：</span></strong><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">疫情<span style="color: black;">掌控</span>反复，<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>经济下行超预期，地缘不确定性，模型迭代效果/算力发展/<span style="color: black;">商场</span>化应用落地不及预期，版权/伦理/内容<span style="color: black;">危害</span>。</span></span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">报告正文</strong></p>
<h2 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">1、</span>策略：</span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">把握“造风者”红利，迎接新一轮场景革命</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span></h2><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>自23.3.2<span style="color: black;">连续</span>九篇报告<span style="color: black;">举荐</span>数字经济机遇，这是23年最值得<span style="color: black;">注重</span>的或将贯穿全年的投资机遇！</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;">报</span></span><span style="color: black;">告<span style="color: black;">仔细</span>梳理数字经济“三大预期差→三大趋势→三大投资线索”、数据要素&数字基建两大基石，数字经济“位置感”，以及由AI<span style="color: black;">诱发</span>第四次场景革命。</span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>于</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"></span>4.3发布<span style="color: black;"></span>《与风共舞:从经典科技牛看AI浪潮》</a></span></strong></span><span style="color: black;">提出，AI的奇点时刻<span style="color: black;">已然</span>到来，<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>当前站在新一轮产业浪潮的拐点，并于</span><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">4.7发布《“AI+”堪比13年的“移动互联网+”》</span></strong></span></a><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">，进一步深度挖掘“AI+”与13年“移动互联网+”的异同</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;">，从策略视角自上而下理解本轮“AI+”的行情。</span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">广发传媒互联网组自23.2.8连续26篇报告<span style="color: black;">连续</span><span style="color: black;">跟踪</span>AI+&数字经济产业动向</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;">，</span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">于3.1发布深度报告</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><a style="color: black;">《现象级<span style="color: black;">制品</span> ChatGPT <span style="color: black;">显现</span>，AIG</a>C <span style="color: black;">商场</span>化推进，赋能多元应用》</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;">，全面梳理AIGC产业链从大模型到应用场景的发展<span style="color: black;">状况</span>；并于3.13、3.26、4.9多次发布报告重申投资观点，<span style="color: black;">连续</span>看好AI+行情下传媒互联网板块的投资机会。</span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">在4.9发布的深度报告</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><a style="color: black;">《复盘“互联网+”，本轮“AI+”行情演绎与异同》</a></span></strong></span><span style="color: black;">中，复盘了13-15年传媒牛市行情，并对比本轮AI+行情与上一轮“互联网+”行情的异同，指出行情主线有望朝三个方向演绎：（1）大模型厂商及产业链<span style="color: black;">机构</span>，（2）细分<span style="color: black;">行业</span>有落地场景、<span style="color: black;">将来</span>有望<span style="color: black;">连续</span>受益、较为稳健的品种，（3）垂类<span style="color: black;">行业</span>数据价值方向。</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">本篇报告<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>联合广发传媒组，从三个视角解析本轮“AIGC”产业机遇，并全面解析AI主线中的传媒行业投资机会。</span></strong>
<h2 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">（一）</span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">短期视角：传媒兼具高弹性(△g)、低估值、筹码结构干净三重属性</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span></h2>
</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">为么</span>尽管短期看不到业绩兑现，但传媒<span style="color: black;">第1</span>波上涨斜率如此陡峭、且不输已观测到订单拉动的算力环节？<span style="color: black;">由于</span>传媒<span style="color: black;">同期</span>满足三重属性、且三重属性多为TMT中最强——</span></strong><span style="color: black;">（1）传媒是今年TMT中业绩环比改善高弹性（△g）最<span style="color: black;">明显</span>的方向，且AIGC浪潮增强了<span style="color: black;">将来</span>业绩想象前景；</span><span style="color: black;">（2）尽管经历了陡峭上涨，当前行业估值分位数仍不高；</span><span style="color: black;">（3）行业<span style="color: black;">处在</span>过去若干年的基金配置底部，筹码结构干净。</span><span style="color: black;">
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">第1</span>，传媒是23年高弹性（△g）方向，且AIGC浪潮<span style="color: black;">加强</span>了<span style="color: black;">将来</span>业绩想象前景。</span></strong></span></span><span style="color: black;">传媒是TMT行业中23年业绩改善弹性（△g）最<span style="color: black;">明显</span>的方向，且政策、产业周期及AIGC浪潮提振下，盈利预测增速大多<span style="color: black;">持续</span>上调，如游戏、<span style="color: black;">宣传</span>、影视等。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/6ocBYwxjg5qtNDRKIDfNqiaNgcF8RJsAdj24odxeVw5vba5tnN5CsU7yWuZCdxHVkKRRlMJEicx2dn84vH3ziaHTg/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">第二，即便经过了本轮AIGC行情的陡峭上涨，传媒<span style="color: black;">都数</span>行业的估值仍在偏合意的水位。</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">以PS来<span style="color: black;">重点</span>度量当前的估值水位，传媒<span style="color: black;">都数</span>行业估值<span style="color: black;">位置于</span>历史中枢以下，如游戏、营销、教育等。</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">因此呢</span>尽管经过了年初<span style="color: black;">败兴</span>的陡峭上涨，历史空间对比来看传媒当前的估值压力仍不大。尤其是在AI产业链之间横向对比来看，传媒<span style="color: black;">亦</span>有估值<span style="color: black;">优良</span>。</span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/6ocBYwxjg5qtNDRKIDfNqiaNgcF8RJsAd0hy6SiaQe0zE3gRLPrGwDTr7iagpbfeMHSJ3hgsptzPfCT2SmeY9SBxQ/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/6ocBYwxjg5qtNDRKIDfNqiaNgcF8RJsAdIzqDWhfVpkdjcwsN72OuIrtibXxWicU0Kib7IpamiblB8sLKbrQD4ULPFg/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">第</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">三，传媒<span style="color: black;">处在</span>过去若干年基金配置底部，筹码压力较轻。</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">因为</span>连续数年在A股表现欠佳，传媒基金配置<span style="color: black;">已然</span>降至历史底部。从22Q4最新基金持仓数据来看，传媒配置比例已基本是历史最低，且大幅低配。虽然23年<span style="color: black;">败兴</span><span style="color: black;">公司</span>持仓有所<span style="color: black;">提升</span>，但在<span style="color: black;">数年</span>低配的情形下加仓需要过程，<span style="color: black;">日前</span>筹码结构应该不<span style="color: black;">形成</span>行情压力。</span></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/6ocBYwxjg5qtNDRKIDfNqiaNgcF8RJsAdg1EibfLUsBFtEQ93omZAML4kPAUWSn0jOksnTXX9Nab8TtbHgXicbmoA/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<h2 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">（二）</span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">中期视角：把握“造风者”红利</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span></h2>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">短期视角的性价比<span style="color: black;">评定</span>属于战术维度。战略层面，鉴于AI掀起的是“第四次工业革命”，<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>可站在3-5年维度的中期产业投资视角去<span style="color: black;">评定</span>本轮大的投资机会。</span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">历史上新能源车、互联网、智能手机等产业浪潮经验来看，产业投资在中期维度上最重要的事情是选出核心环节龙头并持有。</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;">回过头来看，新能源车投资中最重要的是押中动力电池，宁德、亿纬在20-21年分别上涨超过8倍、13倍，涨幅基本是新能源车产业链之最。<span style="color: black;">一样</span>，互联网浪潮中核心龙头微软市值在20世纪90年代增长超过50倍，智能手机周期中的核心龙头苹果在2010-2020年市值增长超19倍。</span></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/6ocBYwxjg5qtNDRKIDfNqiaNgcF8RJsAdYsGrzRkxDiaJcfJgu1pV0wBicxnCT3micbUAiaRl3UDCWTGJia3URhtXwug/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">历史来看，“造风者”的核心特征是——</span></strong></span></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">（1）高技术密集型、微笑曲线左端，是产业链“降本增效”和“升级迭代”的关键环节。</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;">例如，动力电池<span style="color: black;">经过</span>CTP/CTC等结构创新、及磷酸铁锂技术的引入，实现了成本的下降或能量密度/续航/安全性等的抬升，从而助力新能源车加速渗透。此后电池技术的<span style="color: black;">持续</span>创新<span style="color: black;">亦</span>是产业链升级的核心驱动力之一。</span></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">（2）高附加值，<span style="color: black;">常常</span><span style="color: black;">能够</span>占据产业链更高的价值量。</strong></span><span style="color: black;">例如，动力电池占据着新能源车最高的单车价值量。苹果<span style="color: black;">机构</span>利润分配占全产业链的一半以上。</span></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">（3）多呈龙头化趋势。</strong></span><span style="color: black;">例如，<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>动力电池CR5由18年的68%抬升至21年的85%。微软的Windows系统占据着<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>80%以上的份额。</span></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/6ocBYwxjg5qtNDRKIDfNqiaNgcF8RJsAdhia4xJE2ibgFCO9AF8WyuZRWIk2GiaW7fOTJhF7D2eeZvKjmjo2ueOA8Q/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">映射当下，AI大模型可能是产业链的核心环节，高成本驱动头部化，把握“头部玩家”互联网大厂的投资机遇。</strong></span></span></p><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">第1</span>，高技术附加值、微笑曲线左侧：</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">大模型底层算法的优化是产业链升级的核心驱动力之一，如Transformer算法的推出加速了NLP大模型的发展；</span></span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">第二，产业链地位：</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">大模型类似AI的“操作系统”；</span></span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">第三，头部化趋势：</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;">AI模型需要<span style="color: black;">昂贵</span>的训练成本及高质量的数据资源<span style="color: black;">需求</span>，使得腰部及以下企业在大模型<span style="color: black;">行业</span>的拓展难度加大，产业有望向头部化集中，关注当前头部玩家互联网大厂。</span><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/6ocBYwxjg5qtNDRKIDfNqiaNgcF8RJsAdapzuH7QjGL6ehljXWEp5eRuuCeKBjEic6G4RBOYDm69MkBOibMMPlUxg/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;">
<h2 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">（三）<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>视角：迎接新一轮场景革命</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span></h2>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">实现放长远，<span style="color: black;">倘若</span>To-C端<span style="color: black;">商场</span>模式打通、降本增效/收入增量兑现，本轮AI可能引领一场新的场景革命，推动完成从“万物互联”到“万物赋能”的跨越。</strong></span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">（1）“场景革命” 11大新场景赋能：</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;">AI为首的数字技术赋能出行、社交、办公、搜索、娱乐、居住、教育、生产、管理、金融、医疗等11大场景、37个细分场景。</span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">（2）新场景新应用：B、C、G端<span style="color: black;">优秀</span>数字新场景：①B端：</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;">生产场景：智能工厂（数字化车间、工业<span style="color: black;">设备</span>人）；管理场景：企业云服务（云ERP）；运输场景：智慧供应链（无人矿车、无人港口集装）。</span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">②C端：</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;">工作场景：在线办公（办公云平台、AI辅助办公软件）；生活场景：智能家居（对话式AI操作助手）、聊天<span style="color: black;">设备</span>人（ChatGPT）；学习场景：智慧教育（教育新基建、教育云）。</span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">③G端：</span></strong></span><span style="color: black;">政务服务：智慧政务（政务云）；城市治理场景：智慧城市（智慧交通、智慧安防）。</span></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/6ocBYwxjg5qtNDRKIDfNqiaNgcF8RJsAdBaK0A8eWza8gwoqBVxRRXCMo3dXUCibRx9Mb0bicVtqDoVfjdLd9gvDg/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></span></p>
<h2 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">（四）</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">危害</span>提示</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span></h2>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">国内疫情<span style="color: black;">掌控</span>反复可能使得盈利修复不及预期；<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>经济衰退存在不确定性，可能使得外需超预期下滑，并拖累经济修复；<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>地缘政治<span style="color: black;">危害</span>存在不确定性。</span></p>
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<h2 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">2、</span></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">对话传媒：七问七答，AI+引领的场景革命将<span style="color: black;">怎样</span>演绎？</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span></h2>
<h2 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">（一）Q1</span></strong></span></strong></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">：<span style="color: black;">怎样</span>看待本轮AI+传媒行情？是主题还是产业趋势？</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span></h2><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为本轮AI+<span style="color: black;">不仅</span>是对传媒互联网，对TMT板块整体、<span style="color: black;">乃至</span>上下游<span style="color: black;">非常多</span>板块<span style="color: black;">来讲</span>，都是一个大的产业变革机遇，而不是短期主题热度。</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">复盘这轮AI+行情，GPT系列模型的迭代、国内外大厂的你追我赶，推动大模型产业技术侧的大变革，<span style="color: black;">从而</span>辐射到产业链上下游，市场对下游AI与各产业应用结合的预期和<span style="color: black;">自信心</span>逐步抬升</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;">。今年<span style="color: black;">败兴</span>，ChatGPT概念<span style="color: black;">连续</span>火热，国内外大厂相继发布新模型与<span style="color: black;">关联</span>应用，推动计算机、电子、传媒、通信等板块行情<span style="color: black;">连续</span>走高。2月8日，微软宣布将ChatGPT接入搜索引擎Bing；2月13日，百度官方宣布“文心一言”模型将于3月发布，文心一言生态合作伙伴密集官宣，各行业板块走强。3月2日，OpenAI官网发布ChatGPT API，拉动板块行情<span style="color: black;">提高</span>；3月14日，OpenAI发布GPT4，支持多模态应用。3月16日，百度正式发布“文心一言”大模型；同日，微软发布<span style="color: black;">移植</span>GPT-4的Microsoft365 Copilot，表现超预期。2、3月，大厂动作频繁，计算机、电子、传媒、通信等板块热度进一步<span style="color: black;">提高</span>。</span><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/6ocBYwxjg5qtNDRKIDfNqiaNgcF8RJsAdFChghSRCWSicy5TOC9LyXoShI7FhIibOgcLYvWu3smjqBNNmUkO5Yysg/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">复盘重点个股涨幅：传媒板块行情从年初ChatGPT爆火出圈<span style="color: black;">起始</span>，带动国内应用端行情<span style="color: black;">快速</span>发展，市场<span style="color: black;">起始</span>关注有应用、海外有布局的<span style="color: black;">关联</span>标的。</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;">市场关注度从一<span style="color: black;">起始</span>关注AI+能够真正带来营收增量的<span style="color: black;">机构</span>逐步向AI技术能够降本增效的产业个股扩散，市场对AI赋能各产业的预期抬高。百度“文心一言”生态合作伙伴的密集官宣推高百度产业链<span style="color: black;">关联</span>概念股的热度。3月14日-3月16日，GPT-4发布、Copilot超预期、百度文心一言发布等一系列重磅事件将传媒板块热度再次推升。<span style="color: black;">另外</span>，腾讯、阿里、华为、字节等国内大厂在大模型<span style="color: black;">行业</span>均有布局，带动产业链<span style="color: black;">关联</span>标的关注度<span style="color: black;">提高</span>，行情表现来看，市场优先筛选营收增量确定性高、业务开展<span style="color: black;">重点</span>在海外、估值水平相对较低的品种。3月中旬<span style="color: black;">起始</span>，行情进一步蔓延扩散到AI+游戏、AI+IP、AI+办公、AI+教育、AI+影视、AI+电商、AI+金融、AI+医药等多元应用板块。</span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/6ocBYwxjg5qtNDRKIDfNqiaNgcF8RJsAdTgccyfpSKIh0apvsROIDFGmgjeyvAjMgLzZaX6xRZZJiaf9u974wyag/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>继续看好传媒互联网在AI+技术迭代中存在的产业机会，<span style="color: black;">连续</span>看好AI对游戏、IP、办公、教育、营销、电商、VR/AR、影视、版权等方向的赋能和革新。</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">按照</span>广发证券策略组发布的报告《与风共舞：从经典科技牛看AI奇点时刻》，随着劳动力红利期的退潮，技术进步<span style="color: black;">作为</span>经济增长的<span style="color: black;">重点</span>引擎。科技创新对经济增长的拉动会在<span style="color: black;">将来</span>10年<span style="color: black;">更加多</span>被看到，从这个<span style="color: black;">方向</span>来理解AI驱动下数字时代的巨大机遇。计算机硬件突破、软件创新及互联网红利、智能手机及移动互联网浪潮，都带来了<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>经济增长斜率的<span style="color: black;">提高</span>。</span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/6ocBYwxjg5qtNDRKIDfNqiaNgcF8RJsAdqf2aibrcuqicv9j9R7f6k16EdcicibxuZEBua39Q4TD3EvRXQM4ynzNFGQ/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<h2 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">（二）Q2：</span></strong></span></strong></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">传媒视角看，本轮“AI+”行情和13-15年“移动互联网+”行情有何异同？</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span></h2><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>对比总结本轮AI+行情与上一轮传媒牛市的互联网+行情有<span style="color: black;">许多</span>异同，<span style="color: black;">类似</span>之处<span style="color: black;">包含</span>：</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;">（有望）是新一代信息技术革命的核心驱动、是承载宏观经济转型发展的新增长点、C端多元应用落地（有望）<span style="color: black;">作为</span>行情蔓延的重要转折点等。<span style="color: black;">详细</span>对比看：</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">外边</span>环境</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;">：宏观经济方面，两轮行情都<span style="color: black;">处在</span>宏观经济承压时期，23年疫后复苏，宏观经济逐步修复；资本市场看，13-15年传媒牛市有较强的资金流动性，杠杆资金、场外配资较多，推动增量资金<span style="color: black;">海量</span>流入传媒互联网板块，当前更<span style="color: black;">大都是</span>存量资金的博弈，传媒板块低配幅度<span style="color: black;">处在</span>历史低位，若后续新能源产业有新的变化、消费复苏超预期，都可能对传媒板块的行情产生影响；政策监管看，13-15年传媒牛市资产证券化政策宽松，二级市场<span style="color: black;">连续</span>有新标的，<span style="color: black;">同期</span>已上市<span style="color: black;">机构</span><span style="color: black;">亦</span><span style="color: black;">经过</span>并购外延切入新赛道、<span style="color: black;">快速</span>增厚业绩，内容监管宽松，内容产出百花齐放；这一轮AI+行情中，资产证券化<span style="color: black;">方向</span>，传媒板块新增标的较少，更<span style="color: black;">大都是</span>已有标的尝试新业务、新<span style="color: black;">商场</span>模式，内容侧的政策监管有边际改善，随着版号、长视频等内容<span style="color: black;">行业</span>监管常态化，23年供给侧的释放有望加速，但<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为较难回到13-15年状态。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">内部驱动看</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;">：两轮行情的核心驱动都来自于底层技术的变革；应用场景都非常多元化，在传媒互联网<span style="color: black;">行业</span>，AI+营销、AI+游戏、AI+IP、AI+电商、AI+虚拟人、AI+教育、AI+办公等丰富的场景都有望或已初步看到应用落地；<span style="color: black;">实质</span>增益看，上一轮行情中，上市<span style="color: black;">机构</span>在业绩层面能够看到<span style="color: black;">快速</span>、<span style="color: black;">显著</span>的增量，但本轮AI+行情短期内<span style="color: black;">没法</span>快速看到<span style="color: black;">显著</span>的业绩增量，收入增量及降本增效的程度和节奏有待<span style="color: black;">连续</span>跟踪。</span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/6ocBYwxjg5qtNDRKIDfNqiaNgcF8RJsAdibkAsupwRb2YbpgRicfpQh3WA5y6s2BW7TpQ2m6ON9gxbLsYnvDm2giaA/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<h2 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">（三）Q3：</span></strong></span></strong></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">AI+在传媒互联网<span style="color: black;">行业</span>朝着大模型和应用落地两大方向演绎，<span style="color: black;">首要</span><span style="color: black;">怎样</span>看待大模型<span style="color: black;">行业</span>的投资机会？</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span></h2><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">大模型<span style="color: black;">做为</span>技术底座的重要性已<span style="color: black;">作为</span>行业共识，数据、算力、算法是大模型训练的“三驾马车”，需要庞大的训练集和较高的训练成本，大厂天然具备<span style="color: black;">优良</span>。</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">日前</span>行业中<span style="color: black;">持有</span>较为前沿技术的<span style="color: black;">重点</span>参与者<span style="color: black;">包含</span>谷歌、OpenAI（与微软深度绑定）、Stability AI（亚马逊合作）、百度等。国外厂商在技术上相对更为领先，整体迭代速度相对较快，微软、谷歌头部厂商已将大模型与搜索引擎相结合，开启搜索新时代。2023年2月7日，微软推出与GPT-4相结合的New Bing，谷歌3月21日向公众发布了<span style="color: black;">能够</span><span style="color: black;">拜访</span>谷歌搜索的Bard。</span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/6ocBYwxjg5qtNDRKIDfNqiaNgcF8RJsAdRl22JSWnqXlNQLktRsibPbu6320lrKPc1SrV41KfaxgX3trBupzC2vA/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">日前</span>看，算力和数据是限制国内大模型<span style="color: black;">开发</span>的<span style="color: black;">重点</span>瓶颈。</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;">短期内国内厂商需要<span style="color: black;">处理</span>算力问题，购买GPU、建设算力中心等，待算力中心建成后则需要<span style="color: black;">处理</span><span style="color: black;">优秀</span>数据资源不足问题。国内可用于大模型训练的<span style="color: black;">优秀</span>专业数据较国外相对稀缺，书籍、论文、报告等<span style="color: black;">优秀</span>文本数据电子化以及开放程度不高，<span style="color: black;">按照</span>W3Techs，<span style="color: black;">截止</span>2023年4月11日，数百个<span style="color: black;">关联</span>网站中，英文内容占比56.1%，中文内容仅占1.5%。</span><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><span style="color: black;">竞争力看，对比国内具备大模型能力的大厂，百度<span style="color: black;">拥有</span><span style="color: black;">必定</span>先发<span style="color: black;">优良</span>，文心一言、文心千帆等相继落地，华为、阿里、腾讯等大厂的大模型<span style="color: black;">制品</span>推进节奏加快，叠加在各自<span style="color: black;">优良</span><span style="color: black;">行业</span><span style="color: black;">累积</span>的B端/C端客户资源，有望在大模型落地后较快看到<span style="color: black;">商场</span>化变现，随着围绕大模型的生态逐步完善，变现空间<span style="color: black;">亦</span>随之拓展。互联网龙头有成熟的<span style="color: black;">制品</span>、庞大的用户基本盘，AI技术与<span style="color: black;">详细</span>应用场景的结合、<span style="color: black;">商场</span>化节奏<span style="color: black;">亦</span>更有可能更快推进。</span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<h2 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">（四）Q4：</span></strong></span></strong></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">下游应用端，AI有望赋能传媒<span style="color: black;">那些</span>细分赛道？<span style="color: black;">怎样</span>赋能？</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span></h2><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">应用端关注细分<span style="color: black;">行业</span>有落地场景，<span style="color: black;">将来</span>有望<span style="color: black;">连续</span>受益的赛道和<span style="color: black;">机构</span>。</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为市场关注度会进一步向<span style="color: black;">规律</span>顺的、空间大的发展方向聚焦，<span style="color: black;">举荐</span>关注有成本优化，收入增量<span style="color: black;">规律</span>的方向，优先关注已有<span style="color: black;">关联</span>场景与AI结合、应用落地较为稳健的品种：AI+游戏（短期在游戏制作、宣发环节能较快看到降本增效，且确定性强，<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>可展望AI+游戏在<span style="color: black;">提高</span>用户体验上的想象空间）、AI+办公（Microsoft 365 Copilot展现了超预期的强大功能，<span style="color: black;">极重</span><span style="color: black;">提高</span>办公效率，有望短期内看到<span style="color: black;">更加多</span><span style="color: black;">关联</span><span style="color: black;">制品</span>落地，ARPU值<span style="color: black;">提高</span>空间大）、AI+IP（网文IP、影视剧IP、动漫形象IP、<span style="color: black;">照片</span>IP）、AI+教育（助力<span style="color: black;">教育</span>内容生产提效、个性化<span style="color: black;">教育</span>）等；<span style="color: black;">同期</span>关注AI+营销（或将是最快变现的赛道之一，营销内容生产降本增效，<span style="color: black;">提高</span>营销<span style="color: black;">精细</span>度，与虚拟人结合实现“千人千面”）等。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">AI+游戏：应用端首推AI+游戏，AI技术可应用于游戏<span style="color: black;">制品</span>全生命周期，全面<span style="color: black;">提高</span>产业效率。</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">重点</span>可分为两个<span style="color: black;">周期</span>：一是<span style="color: black;">做为</span>辅助工具，替代信息挖掘、素材调用等方面的生产力，实现降本增效；二则是直接生成内容、辅助判别、<span style="color: black;">提高</span>游戏体验。<span style="color: black;">日前</span>生成式AI的应用还<span style="color: black;">处在</span><span style="color: black;">第1</span><span style="color: black;">周期</span>。<span style="color: black;">日前</span>多家<span style="color: black;">机构</span>已布局AI+游戏。网易手游《逆水寒》实装国内首个“游戏GPT”，智能NPC系统<span style="color: black;">帮忙</span>打造更具沉浸感的游戏世界，<span style="color: black;">提高</span>玩家参与度与交互性。</span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">AI+办公：微软、谷歌等海外巨头引领AI大模型结合办公软件趋势，AI+办公将<span style="color: black;">明显</span><span style="color: black;">提高</span>工作效率和生产力，打开<span style="color: black;">商场</span>化空间。</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;">3月16日微软正式发布Microsoft 365 Copilot，将<span style="color: black;">包含</span>GPT-4在内的大语言模型（LLM）能力和Microsoft Graph、Microsoft 365的数据结合，<span style="color: black;">供给</span>了超出市场预期的丰富功能。演示效果看，Copilot对办公场景在三方面赋能：（1）解放生产力；（2）释放创造力；（3）<span style="color: black;">提高</span>技能。Copilot实现了微软办公<span style="color: black;">制品</span>的跨应用连接，<span style="color: black;">极重</span><span style="color: black;">加强</span>用户<span style="color: black;">运用</span>体验，有望大幅<span style="color: black;">提高</span>办公效率，一旦向C端消费者全面开放，<span style="color: black;">商场</span>化前景可期。我们认为AI+办公是AI能够快速落地的核心场景之一，无论是微软Copilot还是百度文心千帆、阿里通义千问，都有望对生产力、办公效率带来确定性较强的大幅<span style="color: black;">提高</span>，随着<span style="color: black;">制品</span>的正式推出，用户规模（尤其是B端）有望<span style="color: black;">快速</span>渗透。</span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">AI+IP：IP数据资源助力<span style="color: black;">提高</span>AI模型训练效果，AI模型<span style="color: black;">提高</span>IP生产质量和效率。</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;">网文IP方面，大规模和高质量的网文数据是训练文本生成式AI大模型的良好数据资源，<span style="color: black;">持有</span>网文数据<span style="color: black;">贮存</span>的头部<span style="color: black;">机构</span>将受益于AI训练的<span style="color: black;">需要</span><span style="color: black;">提高</span>，进一步释放网文数据价值；AI续写、AI校对等功能可<span style="color: black;">帮忙</span>作者<span style="color: black;">加强</span>创作速度和网文内容质量。影视剧IP方面，AI或将融入影视剧行业全流程，一方面<span style="color: black;">经过</span>图像渲染、仿真模拟或风格修饰等操作<span style="color: black;">提高</span>影视剧质量，代替传统影视制作过程中的重复性、<span style="color: black;">基本</span>性工作；另一方面，AI<span style="color: black;">能够</span>运用自动生成和分析能力助力影视剧宣传和分发工作。动漫形象IP方面，AI或将大幅降低动漫制作门槛，并实现多<span style="color: black;">途径</span>智能化分发<span style="color: black;">举荐</span>。<span style="color: black;">照片</span>IP方面，<span style="color: black;">照片</span>资源或将<span style="color: black;">作为</span>多模态AI的<span style="color: black;">优秀</span>训练素材，<span style="color: black;">同期</span>AI<span style="color: black;">亦</span>将有效<span style="color: black;">提高</span><span style="color: black;">照片</span>生产质量和效率。高质量的<span style="color: black;">照片</span>数据<span style="color: black;">能够</span>为大模型训练<span style="color: black;">供给</span>良好的数据素材，由此<span style="color: black;">提高</span><span style="color: black;">照片</span>资源<span style="color: black;">机构</span>的潜在<span style="color: black;">商场</span>化空间，AI还<span style="color: black;">能够</span><span style="color: black;">做为</span>生产力工具参与<span style="color: black;">照片</span>的拍摄、制作和后期等环节，<span style="color: black;">提高</span><span style="color: black;">照片</span>生产的效率和质量，对破损和瑕疵部分进行自动识别和修复等。</span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">AI+教育：AI技术在应用侧有望赋予教育行业新的发展机遇。</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;">AI技术能够<span style="color: black;">帮忙</span><span style="color: black;">教育</span>内容生产降本增效；实现因材施教、有针对性的自适应性<span style="color: black;">教育</span>等。GPT-4发布后，<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>最大的语言学习工具软件多邻国（Duolingo，美股上市）宣布正式接入，并推出新<span style="color: black;">制品</span>“Duolingo Max”，<span style="color: black;">供给</span>Roleplay功能，<span style="color: black;">经过</span>AI聊天<span style="color: black;">设备</span>人和用户的多轮对话互动，实现“因材施教”。网易有道将于<span style="color: black;">近期</span>推出自研的教育场景下类ChatGPT模型“子曰”，其基于模型<span style="color: black;">开发</span>的AI<span style="color: black;">白话</span>老师和中文作文批改DEMO已完成并于近期开放内测。科大讯飞凭借<span style="color: black;">数年</span>在深度神经网络算法方面的丰富经验<span style="color: black;">累积</span>、海量行业文本语料和用户反馈数据、自建数据中心<span style="color: black;">供给</span>的算力支撑，将于5月6日发布基于AI+教育垂类模型的讯飞AI学习机等<span style="color: black;">制品</span>。国内外AI+教育<span style="color: black;">制品</span><span style="color: black;">触及</span><span style="color: black;">包含</span>语言学习、自适应学习、早<span style="color: black;">教育</span>习机（AI护眼、AI坐姿<span style="color: black;">调节</span>等辅助功能）、拍照搜题、作业自动批改、虚拟教师、智慧<span style="color: black;">教育</span>、智慧招考在内的多元应用<span style="color: black;">行业</span>。</span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">AI+营销：营销<span style="color: black;">行业</span><span style="color: black;">触及</span><span style="color: black;">海量</span>的文字、<span style="color: black;">照片</span>等内容的生成，落地速度会更快。</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;">微软已在必应尝试新的<span style="color: black;">宣传</span>营销形式，3月29日，微软在一篇博文中<span style="color: black;">暗示</span><span style="color: black;">机构</span>“正在以<span style="color: black;">实验</span>的形式在Bing聊天中<span style="color: black;">插进</span><span style="color: black;">宣传</span>，<span style="color: black;">日前</span><span style="color: black;">已然</span>有逾7500个微软Start合作伙伴品牌”，并且<span style="color: black;">期盼</span>“与内容贡献给必应的合作伙伴分享<span style="color: black;">宣传</span>收入”。Meta CTO Adrew Bosworth在采访中<span style="color: black;">暗示</span>，<span style="color: black;">机构</span>计划年底前实现生成式AI的<span style="color: black;">商场</span>化，用于<span style="color: black;">宣传</span>图像。</span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<h2 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">（五）Q5：</span></strong></span></strong></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">在<span style="color: black;">以上</span>各赛道中，<span style="color: black;">那些</span><span style="color: black;">行业</span>今年可能率先观察到收入兑现或降本增效？</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span></h2><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为当前时点模型侧和下游应用端短期内预计都<span style="color: black;">没法</span>快速看到<span style="color: black;">显著</span>的业绩增量，收入增量及降本增效的程度和节奏有待<span style="color: black;">连续</span>跟踪。</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">分板块看，<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为在内容创意的细分方向，营销<span style="color: black;">行业</span>或将是AI技术最先<span style="color: black;">商场</span>化变现的场景</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;">，如Q4所述，海<span style="color: black;">外边</span>分头部大厂预计今年实现AI+<span style="color: black;">宣传</span>营销的<span style="color: black;">商场</span>化，关注AI+营销<span style="color: black;">行业</span>的应用效果及<span style="color: black;">商场</span>化<span style="color: black;">状况</span>；AI技术应用于办公<span style="color: black;">行业</span><span style="color: black;">能够</span><span style="color: black;">加强</span>工作效率和生产力，<span style="color: black;">亦</span>有望<span style="color: black;">作为</span>国内较快的AI+应用场景之一，关注字节、腾讯、阿里等厂商AI+办公软件<span style="color: black;">制品</span>的推进节奏。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">AI+办公将<span style="color: black;">明显</span><span style="color: black;">提高</span>工作效率和生产力，随着大厂<span style="color: black;">关联</span><span style="color: black;">制品</span>演示的密集露出，或将<span style="color: black;">作为</span>国内较快落地的 AI+应用场景之一。</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;">Copilot 打开了 Al+办公的想象空间，有望大幅解放生产力、<span style="color: black;">提高</span>办公效率，<span style="color: black;">商场</span>化前景可期。近期，国内互联网龙头百度、字节、阿里等都相继布局，将各自的AI核心能力与 WPS、飞书、钉钉等成熟的办公<span style="color: black;">制品</span>融合，AI 对办公场景的<span style="color: black;">实质</span>赋能<span style="color: black;">拥有</span>较强的确定性，应用落地更为稳健，<span style="color: black;">能够</span>预期<span style="color: black;">制品</span>正式上线后，能够较快打开用户市场，<span style="color: black;">从而</span>加速 Al+办公的<span style="color: black;">商场</span>化变现。</span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">展望<span style="color: black;">将来</span>，<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为在文档资料重要程度较高、从业人数较多<span style="color: black;">行业</span>，与Al结合能够带来的增益会更大，金融<span style="color: black;">行业</span>或将是<span style="color: black;">将来</span>大模型<span style="color: black;">商场</span>化方面<span style="color: black;">得到</span>收益、成交金额<span style="color: black;">很强</span>的<span style="color: black;">行业</span>，<span style="color: black;">由于</span>带来的社会价值较高。</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;">应用端看，AI大模型在金融<span style="color: black;">行业</span>可应用到银行、保险、证券等细分行业，在智能客服、<span style="color: black;">危害</span>监控、核保理赔、合规审查、辅助<span style="color: black;">科研</span>等场景具备<span style="color: black;">很强</span><span style="color: black;">运用</span>空间。彭博于3月30日推出金融<span style="color: black;">行业</span>大型语言模型BloombergGPT，该模型依托彭博社的<span style="color: black;">海量</span>金融数据源，对资源进行创建、收集和整理，构建了一个3630亿个标签的数据集，支持金融行业内的各类任务。国内企业看，同花顺在2009年就已<span style="color: black;">起始</span>布局AI业务，对AI大模型、AIGC等<span style="color: black;">行业</span>有着较多投入与应用<span style="color: black;">科研</span>，<span style="color: black;">同期</span><span style="color: black;">机构</span><span style="color: black;">累积</span>有较为庞大的金融信息和规模庞大的用户数量，具备良好的金融垂直<span style="color: black;">行业</span>大模型<span style="color: black;">研发</span><span style="color: black;">基本</span>，<span style="color: black;">拥有</span>充足发展<span style="color: black;">潜能</span>，<span style="color: black;">将来</span>随着<span style="color: black;">机构</span>进一步将AI<span style="color: black;">关联</span>技术应用到<span style="color: black;">制品</span>与服务中，预计将为用户带来更<span style="color: black;">优秀</span>的体验，打造出更有竞争力的<span style="color: black;">制品</span>。</span><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">长时间</span>来看，AI在游戏、IP、VR等内容生产<span style="color: black;">行业</span>将<span style="color: black;">加强</span>创意内容生产效率，<span style="color: black;">同期</span>能够<span style="color: black;">提高</span>用户交互体验。</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;">AI工具能够<span style="color: black;">按照</span>用户的<span style="color: black;">指点</span>，<span style="color: black;">有效</span>率地进行内容的生成、加工、批量编辑和风格转换等，在各媒介中有广阔的应用空间，<span style="color: black;">咱们</span><span style="color: black;">重视</span>到部分游戏厂商及<span style="color: black;">关联</span>IP企业<span style="color: black;">已然</span>积极尝试在创作过程中<span style="color: black;">运用</span>AI技术加速内容生产。游戏方面，腾讯、米哈游、恺英网络、巨人网络、三七互娱、完美世界、吉比特、昆仑万维及中文在线等<span style="color: black;">机构</span>均积极布局AI+游戏赛道，<span style="color: black;">重点</span>可分为AI<span style="color: black;">制品</span><span style="color: black;">开发</span>、虚拟数字人AI交互、游戏<span style="color: black;">制品</span><span style="color: black;">研发</span>应用等方向。IP方面，在线阅读平台和内容社区已<span style="color: black;">起始</span>尝试应用AI技术。随着中文大语言模型的成熟，将<span style="color: black;">明显</span><span style="color: black;">提高</span>平台的内容生产效率。在线阅读平台和内容社区<span style="color: black;">持有</span>海量数据，<span style="color: black;">能够</span>提炼为训练大语言模型所需的<span style="color: black;">优秀</span>中文数据集，进一步变现平台的数据价值，AI技术<span style="color: black;">亦</span>可应用于后期制作、动画绘制、配乐等，<span style="color: black;">帮忙</span>内容<span style="color: black;">机构</span>降本增效、<span style="color: black;">提高</span>产能。</span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>看好AI+在应用层的<span style="color: black;">长时间</span><span style="color: black;">商场</span>变现空间，AI在游戏、营销、教育、IP、金融等<span style="color: black;">行业</span>加速应用<span style="color: black;">能够</span>为企业带来收入增量，符合企业降本增效<span style="color: black;">规律</span>，<span style="color: black;">意见</span><span style="color: black;">连续</span>关注<span style="color: black;">关联</span><span style="color: black;">行业</span>AI+的布局和应用。</strong></span></span></span></p>
<h2 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">（六）Q6：</span></strong></span></strong></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">站在当前时点，<span style="color: black;">怎样</span>看待行情<span style="color: black;">连续</span>性和后续演绎？</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span></h2>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">当前看，AI+仍然<span style="color: black;">处在</span>技术<span style="color: black;">快速</span>发展、模型<span style="color: black;">快速</span>迭代的军备竞</span><span style="color: black;">赛<span style="color: black;">周期</span>，<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>判断经过前期AI+的大幅度扩散和泛化后， AI行情主线可能走向<span style="color: black;">必定</span>程度的分化，有望继续朝着以下方向演绎：</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">一是具备大模型能力的生态大厂及产业链<span style="color: black;">机构</span>。</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">日前</span>大模型是业内一致认知的技术路线，大厂在技术、数据、算力等方面相对更具<span style="color: black;">优良</span>，更有概率跑出。百度<span style="color: black;">拥有</span><span style="color: black;">必定</span>先发<span style="color: black;">优良</span>，文心一言、文心千帆等相继落地，华为、阿里、腾讯等大厂的大模型<span style="color: black;">制品</span>推进节奏加快，叠加在各自<span style="color: black;">优良</span><span style="color: black;">行业</span><span style="color: black;">累积</span>的B端/C端客户资源，有望在大模型落地后较快看到<span style="color: black;">商场</span>化变现，随着围绕大模型的生态逐步完善，变现空间<span style="color: black;">亦</span>随之拓展。互联网龙头有成熟的<span style="color: black;">制品</span>、庞大的用户基本盘，AI技术与<span style="color: black;">详细</span>应用场景的结合、<span style="color: black;">商场</span>化节奏<span style="color: black;">亦</span>更有可能更快推进。</span></p><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">二是细分<span style="color: black;">行业</span>有落地场景，<span style="color: black;">将来</span>有望<span style="color: black;">连续</span>受益的赛道和<span style="color: black;">机构</span></strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;">。并且<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为市场关注度会进一步向<span style="color: black;">规律</span>顺的、空间大的发展方向聚焦，<span style="color: black;">举荐</span>优先配置有成本优化，收入增量<span style="color: black;">规律</span>的方向，关注已有相关场景与AI结合、应用落地较为稳健的品种：AI+游戏（短期在游戏制作、宣发环节能较快看到降本增效，且确定性强，<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>可展望AI游戏在<span style="color: black;">提高</span>用户体验上的想象空间）、AI+办公（Microsoft 365 Copilot展现了超预期的强大功能，<span style="color: black;">极重</span><span style="color: black;">提高</span>办公效率，有望短期内看到<span style="color: black;">更加多</span><span style="color: black;">关联</span><span style="color: black;">制品</span>落地，ARPU值<span style="color: black;">提高</span>空间大）、AI+IP（网文IP、影视剧IP、动漫形象IP、<span style="color: black;">照片</span>IP）、AI+教育（助力<span style="color: black;">教育</span>内容生产提效、个性化<span style="color: black;">教育</span>）等；<span style="color: black;">同期</span>关注AI+营销（是最快变现的赛道之一，营销内容生产降本增效，<span style="color: black;">提高</span>营销<span style="color: black;">精细</span>度，与虚拟人结合实现“千人千面”）等服务商。</span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">三是关注垂类<span style="color: black;">行业</span>数据价值。</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">发掘</span>有价值的垂类数据方向，关注每日互动等。</span>
<h2 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">（七）Q7：</span></strong></span></strong></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">详细</span>有<span style="color: black;">那些</span>值得关注的标的？</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></strong></span></h2><span style="color: black;">大模型及生态服务商、产业链方向，大模型关注百度（文心大模型，3/27推出2B的文心千帆）、阿里（通义大模型）、腾讯（混元大模型）、华为（盘古大模型）、字节等头部大厂动态。AI技术落<span style="color: black;">地区</span>向，关注较为稳健的品种：AI+游戏（三七互娱、吉比特、恺英网络、宝通科技、盛天网络、神州泰岳、巨人网络、完美世界、姚记科技、汤姆猫、紫天科技、电魂网络等）、AI+办公（关注腾讯AI+自有办公软件的布局，关注金山办公、有会议室场景<span style="color: black;">处理</span><span style="color: black;">方法</span>布局的视源股份、鸿合科技等）、AI+IP（网文IP：中文在线、掌阅科技、阅文、平治信息等，影视剧IP：光线传媒、华策影视、上海电影、捷成股份等，动漫形象IP：汤姆猫、奥飞娱乐、风语筑等，<span style="color: black;">照片</span>IP：视觉中国）、AI+教育（有道、视源股份、鸿合科技、方直科技、盛通股份、拓维信息、佳发教育等）、AI+VR（创维数字、恺英网络、宝通科技、富春股份、力盛体育等）等；<span style="color: black;">同期</span>关注AI+营销等服务商（蓝色光标、易点天下、三人行、元隆雅图等）、AI+虚拟人（蓝色光标、捷成股份等）、AI+电商（值得买、返利科技、光云科技、吉宏股份、焦点科技等）、AI校对、审核及安全<span style="color: black;">关联</span>标的（新华网、人民网、果麦文化等）。有价值的垂类数据方向，关注每日互动等。</span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></strong></span></p>
<h2 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">（八）<span style="color: black;">危害</span>提示</span></strong></span></strong></strong></span></h2><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">1. 模型迭代效果不及预期。</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;">AI<span style="color: black;">关联</span>模型的算法迭代可能进入瓶颈，<span style="color: black;">没法</span>得到更好的测试效果；算法可能过拟合，或在<span style="color: black;">区别</span>数据集上<span style="color: black;">得到</span><span style="color: black;">区别</span>的效果。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">2. 算力发展不及预期。</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;">大模型需要的参数量级和训练数据量级都<span style="color: black;">很强</span>，对底层算力支持的<span style="color: black;">需求</span><span style="color: black;">很强</span>，<span style="color: black;">倘若</span>算力发展滞缓，会<span style="color: black;">引起</span>大模型运行的成本过高，<span style="color: black;">没法</span>继续增大训练量级。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">3. <span style="color: black;">商场</span>化应用落地不及预期。</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;">AI行业发展<span style="color: black;">处在</span><span style="color: black;">初期</span>，<span style="color: black;">区别</span>应用场景对与AI+结合的应用效果的<span style="color: black;">需求</span>不同，<span style="color: black;">商场</span>化可能受<span style="color: black;">区别</span>垂直<span style="color: black;">行业</span>应用效果差距的影响，不及预期。</span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">4. 版权、伦理、内容质量的<span style="color: black;">危害</span>。</strong></span></span></span><span style="color: black;">生成式AI用于内容创作/内容生产<span style="color: black;">行业</span>，其内容版权归属问题<span style="color: black;">无</span>一致的规范，AI生成的内容可能存在暴力、低俗等内容质量问题；AI技术的发展可能存在伦理争论。</span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">“数字经济”系列报告</span></strong></span></strong></span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">23.4.12</span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">【广发策略】策略对话计算机：AI大模型时代</span></strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">23.4.11 【广发策略】策略对话电子：AI服务器<span style="color: black;">需要</span>牵引</span></strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><a style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">23.4.7 【广发策略】“AI+”堪比13年的“移动互联网+”<span style="color: black;"></span></span></strong></a></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><a style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">23.4.3 【广发策略】与风共舞：从经典科技牛看AI奇点时刻</span></strong></a></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><a style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">23.3.30【广发策略】AI：第四次场景革命—“数字经济”系列（五）</span></strong></a></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">23.3.28【广发策</span></strong></span></a><strong style="color: blue;">略】<span style="color: black;">怎样</span>看当前数字经济的“位置感”？——“数字经济”系列（四）</strong></p>
<h1 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><span style="color: black;"><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">23.3.17【广发策略】数字经济两大基石稳增长<span style="color: black;">功效</span>几何？——“数字经济”系列（三）</span></strong></span></a></span></h1>
<h1 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><a style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">23.</strong></span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">3.8【广发策略】</strong></span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">国家数据局组建在即，数字中国迎提速契机——“数字经济”</strong></span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">系列（二）</strong></span></strong></span></a></h1>
<h1 style="color: black; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><a style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">23.3.2</strong></span></strong><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">【广发策略】三大预期差把握数字经济投资线索</span></strong>——“数字经</strong></span></strong></a><strong style="color: blue;"><strong style="color: blue;">济”系列（一）</strong></strong></h1>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">本报告信息</strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">对外发布日期：</strong><span style="color: black;">2023年4月13日</span></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">分析师：</strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">戴 康：SAC 执证号：S0260517120004，SFC CE No. BOA313</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">旷 实：SAC 执证号：<span style="color: black;">S0260517030002</span>，<span style="color: black;">SFC CE No. BNV294</span></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">叶敏婷：SAC 执证号：<span style="color: black;">S0260519110001</span></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">杨泽蓁（联系人）</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">毛玥（联系人）</span></p><span style="color: black;"><img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version=1.0 encoding=UTF-8%3F%3E%3Csvg width=1px height=1px viewBox=0 0 1 1 version=1.1 xmlns=http://www.w3.org/2000/svg xmlns:xlink=http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink%3E%3Ctitle%3E%3C/title%3E%3Cg stroke=none stroke-width=1 fill=none fill-rule=evenodd fill-opacity=0%3E%3Cg transform=translate(-249.000000, -126.000000) fill=%23FFFFFF%3E%3Crect x=249 y=126 width=1 height=1%3E%3C/rect%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/g%3E%3C/svg%3E" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><span style="color: black;">法律声明 </span></span><span style="color: black;">
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;">请向下滑动参见广发证券股份有限<span style="color: black;">机构</span><span style="color: black;">相关</span><span style="color: black;">微X</span>推送内容的完整法律声明：</p>
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<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">本<span style="color: black;">微X</span>号推送内容仅供广发证券股份有限<span style="color: black;">机构</span>（下<span style="color: black;">叫作</span>“广发证券”）客户参考，<span style="color: black;">关联</span>客户须经过广发证券投资者适当性<span style="color: black;">评定</span>程序。其他的任何读者在订阅本<span style="color: black;">微X</span>号前，请<span style="color: black;">自动</span><span style="color: black;">评定</span>接收<span style="color: black;">关联</span>推送内容的适当性，若<span style="color: black;">运用</span>本<span style="color: black;">微X</span>号推送内容，须寻求专业投资顾问的<span style="color: black;">诠释</span>及<span style="color: black;">指点</span>，广发证券不会因订阅本<span style="color: black;">微X</span>号的<span style="color: black;">行径</span><span style="color: black;">或</span>收到、阅读本<span style="color: black;">微X</span>号推送内容而视<span style="color: black;">关联</span>人员为客户。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">完整的投资观点应以广发证券<span style="color: black;">科研</span>所发布的完整报告为准。完整报告所载资料的<span style="color: black;">源自</span>及观点的出处皆被广发证券认为<span style="color: black;">靠谱</span>，但广发证券不对其准确性或完整性做出任何<span style="color: black;">保准</span>，报告内容<span style="color: black;">也</span>仅供参考。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">在任何<span style="color: black;">状况</span>下，本<span style="color: black;">微X</span>号所推送信息或所表述的意见并不<span style="color: black;">形成</span>对任何人的投资<span style="color: black;">意见</span>。除<span style="color: black;">违法</span>律法规有<span style="color: black;">知道</span>规定，在任何<span style="color: black;">状况</span>下广发证券不对因<span style="color: black;">运用</span>本<span style="color: black;">微X</span>号的内容而引致的任何损失承担任何责任。读者<span style="color: black;">不该</span>以本<span style="color: black;">微X</span>号推送内容取代其独立判断或仅<span style="color: black;">按照</span>本<span style="color: black;">微X</span>号推送内容做出决策。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">本<span style="color: black;">微X</span>号推送内容仅反映广发证券<span style="color: black;">科研</span>人员于发出完整报告当日的判断，可随时更改且不予通告。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">本<span style="color: black;">微X</span>号及其推送内容的版权归广发证券所有，广发证券对本<span style="color: black;">微X</span>号及其推送内容<span style="color: black;">保存</span>一切法律权利。未经广发证券事先书面许可，任何<span style="color: black;">公司</span>或个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、刊登、转载和引用，否则由此<span style="color: black;">导致</span>的一切不良后果及法律责任由私自翻版、复制、刊登、转载和引用者承担。</span></p><span style="color: black;">感谢您的关注！</span>
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