中信建投 | 确定的复苏大于政策的博弈
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><a style="color: black;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9ns8I2LyRibpmqR0oQn6vNsWwR69nGd3TaNjg6g1B9ic1VRxXhwa72fqgeWEBZsdvuIH4AZd2z0EOMIblWKztRjQ/640?wx_fmt=png&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1&tp=webp" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></a></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;">重要提示</strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">经过</span>本订阅号发布的观点和信息仅供中信建投证券股份有限<span style="color: black;">机构</span>(下<span style="color: black;">叫作</span>“中信建投”)客户中符合《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》规定的<span style="color: black;">公司</span>类专业投资者参考。因本订阅号暂时<span style="color: black;">没法</span>设置<span style="color: black;">拜访</span>限制,若您并非中信建投客户中的<span style="color: black;">公司</span>类专业投资者,为<span style="color: black;">掌控</span>投资<span style="color: black;">危害</span>,请您请取消关注,请勿订阅、接收或<span style="color: black;">运用</span>本订阅号中的任何信息。对由此给您<span style="color: black;">导致</span>的<span style="color: black;">不方便</span><span style="color: black;">暗示</span>诚挚歉意,感谢您的理解与<span style="color: black;">协同</span>!</p>01PART<span style="color: black;">重点<span style="color: black;">举荐</span>·目录</span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">固收 | 确定的复苏大于政策的博弈</span></p>
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<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">地产 | 万科A(000002):旗下万物云上市在即,物业估值有望显性化</span></p><strong style="color: blue;"><a style="color: black;">中信建投</a><span style="color: black;">科研</span><span style="color: black;">公司</span>服务平台</strong>02PART重点<span style="color: black;">举荐</span>·正文<img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9ns8I2LyRibqNESK7Mjmck2jB4xw3t5J1eJ7x8w0qlk9P137WibXOicAweVHyB9eatRQPeGKesBjU84WuF00DyusA/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><a style="color: black;">确定的复苏大于政策的博弈</a></span></strong>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">本周货币市场的扰动<span style="color: black;">原因</span>较少,可能继续集中于未雨绸缪的跨季行情。MLF连续两个月缩量续作后,虽然银行间货币市场交易量仍较为活跃,但各期限利率<span style="color: black;">显著</span>走升,交易者<span style="color: black;">心情</span>边际趋弱。美联储将宣布9月加息,人民币汇率、利率及资本市场面临压力仍大。<span style="color: black;">另外</span>,10月底前将有5000亿元增量<span style="color: black;">地区</span>债供给,<span style="color: black;">截止</span>9月下旬尚未看到这一部分的供给,料将集中于十一假期后释放。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">二季度<span style="color: black;">败兴</span>,“弱复苏”与“宽货币”<span style="color: black;">作为</span>债市事实上<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>交易的主题。二者叠加,“券”少而“钱”多,进一步加剧了市场“资产荒”的程度。更强的配置<span style="color: black;">需要</span><span style="color: black;">亦</span>进一步加强了流动性宽松,并使得利率中枢螺旋形下降。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">当前货币政策以宽货币托底稳增长,宽货币是稳增长的前提环境,以此判断,货币政策的转向<span style="color: black;">乃至</span>退出不会早于经济复苏的证实。<span style="color: black;">针对</span>投资者而言,<span style="color: black;">针对</span>宏观经济的走势和判断应重于<span style="color: black;">针对</span>央行短期政策博弈。</span></p><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9ns8I2LyRibqNESK7Mjmck2jB4xw3t5J1QW0nSM2PiahkeUvqMqIcfH60rd5MrAkrL5FQoWlnW3IQAEVyMPpNFfw/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><a style="color: black;">快递行业价格分析框架:抽丝剥茧,以简驭繁</a></span></strong>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">快递行业仍<span style="color: black;">处在</span>成<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>后段,供需仍未达到平衡</span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">市场大部分观点认为,快递市场已进入“稳<span style="color: black;">定时</span>”,尾部<span style="color: black;">乃至</span>第二梯队快递<span style="color: black;">机构</span>均有可能被淘汰,行业集中度<span style="color: black;">从而</span><span style="color: black;">提高</span>,市场进入相对<span style="color: black;">恰当</span>的规模运营效率周期,价格战缓和,供需平衡。与市场<span style="color: black;">广泛</span>认为快递行业<span style="color: black;">已然</span>进入稳<span style="color: black;">定时</span>的论断<span style="color: black;">区别</span>,<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>的观点认为:快递行业仍<span style="color: black;">处在</span>成<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>后段,供需仍未达到平衡,<span style="color: black;">由于</span>疫情反复叠加监管政策,仅是延缓了快递行业价格战,电商市场<span style="color: black;">需要</span>增长仍有后劲并且商流格局未定,供给侧快递<span style="color: black;">机构</span>依然在<span style="color: black;">增多</span>资本开支扩充产能,并推动模式迭代优化成本,但出清速度并未及预期。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">价格是<span style="color: black;">科研</span>快递行业的核心,供需<span style="color: black;">科研</span>则是跟踪快递价格的<span style="color: black;">基本</span></span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">详细</span>而言,1)<span style="color: black;">需要</span>侧,行业增长空间核心取决于电商市场竞争格局及去中心化节奏,新业态、新<span style="color: black;">机构</span>、新玩法让快递市场存在变数, 电商领域后发挑战者<span style="color: black;">起始</span><span style="color: black;">注重</span>快递物流的体系建设,商流与物流愈发一体化;生鲜医药及跨境电商高速发展,<span style="color: black;">保证</span>了时效件及国际快递的增长。2)供给侧,快递<span style="color: black;">机构</span><span style="color: black;">连续</span>扩充全网产能并推动产能利用率<span style="color: black;">提高</span>;疫情虽然<span style="color: black;">引起</span>快递<span style="color: black;">机构</span>的竞争策略由成本向效率和体验转变,但短期快递市场竞争格局依然取决于价格策略下市场份额的变化;政策让价格战延缓,<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>真正的终结<span style="color: black;">重点</span>依赖于行业自律和各地政策;运营成本仍有优化空间,利润改善为后续资本投入及价格下调奠定<span style="color: black;">基本</span>。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">快递价格数据指标需<span style="color: black;">按照</span>影响的时间、效果和重要性进行<span style="color: black;">归类</span></span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">经过</span>供需分析,<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>总结出跟踪快递行业价格的影响<span style="color: black;">原因</span>,<span style="color: black;">根据</span>短中<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>划分为:监管政策、终端激励政策、燃油成本、运营模式变化为短期影响因素,需要高频跟踪和关注;快递<span style="color: black;">机构</span>竞争策略、精益化管理效果、商流变化<span style="color: black;">状况</span>则是中期影响<span style="color: black;">原因</span>,需要按季度跟踪<span style="color: black;">科研</span>;产业结构以及快递<span style="color: black;">机构</span>融资能力变化,则是<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>影响<span style="color: black;">原因</span>,<span style="color: black;">能够</span>按半年度或年度进行分析研判。</span></p><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9ns8I2LyRibqNESK7Mjmck2jB4xw3t5J1FZ1AsoIicj1vkMPKYjPVFYiaiaTCtOguGvkf2YAuyUNliadQG9LhSLJZFg/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><a style="color: black;">证券业2022中报综述:轻资产业务韧性超预期,重资产经营能力再分化</a></span></strong>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">上半年业绩值得<span style="color: black;">重视</span>的两个要点分别是“轻资产业务韧性的超预期”和“重资产经营能力的高度分化”。</span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">1、轻资产业务<span style="color: black;">包含</span>交易、<span style="color: black;">制品</span>、服务三个维度:</span></strong><span style="color: black;">1)交易:上半年沪深股基交易额同比增长7.6%至125万亿,增速大幅放缓,行业平均佣金率从万分之2.8下降至2.3,由此证券行业对应实现经纪业务净收入583亿,同比仅<span style="color: black;">增多</span>0.5%;但其中公募基金交易额同比增长24%超过100万亿,<span style="color: black;">公司</span>客户交投活跃度韧性十足;<span style="color: black;">同期</span>,投资者数量保持9.3%增速突破2亿,资本市场的配置吸引力继续保持。2)<span style="color: black;">制品</span>:新发<span style="color: black;">营销</span>遇冷,新发基金份额仅6670亿,同比减少了58%,但<span style="color: black;">因为</span><span style="color: black;">危害</span>偏好转移,偏债类新发增长49%;而随着公募基金资管规模同比<span style="color: black;">增多</span>16%至26.8万亿,<span style="color: black;">亦</span>带动上市券商席位费收入同比<span style="color: black;">增多</span>15%。3)服务:受益于注册制深化,科创/创业板募资规模大幅<span style="color: black;">增多</span>,上半年IPO融资金额同比增长47%,而行情低迷和财政刺激分别使得再融资规模下滑32%、债券融资规模微幅增长5%。整体来看,轻资产业务的韧性<span style="color: black;">表现</span>在<span style="color: black;">公司</span>交易的稳定性、<span style="color: black;">制品</span>供应的灵活性、注册制融资的成长性。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">2、重资产业务包括用资、融资两个方面:</span></strong><span style="color: black;">1)用资:第<span style="color: black;">1、</span>二季度股债指数收益率由负转正,上市券商平均年化收益率约为1.84%,影响收益稳定性的核心是配置结构和建仓时点,从上半年<span style="color: black;">状况</span>来看,固收类和股衍仓位占比较高、在行情底部扩表的<span style="color: black;">机构</span>业绩较为稳定,收益分化<span style="color: black;">尤其</span><span style="color: black;">显著</span>;<span style="color: black;">同期</span>,<span style="color: black;">因为</span>客户<span style="color: black;">需要</span>的变化和行业主动压缩,信用类业务的规模整体压降,融出资金同比下滑11%,买入返售金融资产同比减少1%。2)融资:证券行业延续了近几年<span style="color: black;">败兴</span>的扩表动作,上半年完成或准备实施配股的<span style="color: black;">机构</span>共有5家,完成募资524亿,2021年是3家共200亿,<span style="color: black;">同期</span>还有2家券商发行可转债募资183亿,从历史上看,扩表效率更高、能力更强的券商<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>发展更好。综合以上,重资产业务的分化<span style="color: black;">重点</span><span style="color: black;">表现</span>在用资效率和融资能力的差异化。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">投资<span style="color: black;">意见</span>:</span></strong><span style="color: black;">预计41家上市券商2022年下半年将实现营收2790亿元,归母净利润797亿元,同比增速分别为-15%和-13%,其中单Q3营收1333亿元,归母净利360亿元;预计2023年上市券商营业收入同比增长22%至6401亿元,归母净利同比增长40%至2112亿元;<span style="color: black;">亦</span>即2022年Q3或许将是<span style="color: black;">将来</span>一年内业绩同比增速的拐点。<span style="color: black;">截止</span>2022/9/19,2022-2023年41家上市券商PB估值约为1.11-1.07倍,安全边际足,向上弹性大,<strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">根据</span>本文盈利预测,<span style="color: black;">近期</span>一个季度<span style="color: black;">上下</span>时间内将<span style="color: black;">作为</span><span style="color: black;">将来</span>一年维度的最佳配置时点。</strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9ns8I2LyRibqNESK7Mjmck2jB4xw3t5J1xhdEJhG0NEWLUwBBejoeOdgibDMaGnicEL74gqNvwY1FoVAXDwP9uscQ/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><a style="color: black;">高温刺激8月用电<span style="color: black;">需要</span>,火电顶峰</a>出力<span style="color: black;">明显</span><span style="color: black;">提高</span></span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">8月份我国全社会用电量同比增长10.7%,发电量同比增长9.9%。8月份我国火电、水电、核电、风电和太阳能同比增速分别为14.8%、-11%、0.6%、28.2%和10.9%,火电增速<span style="color: black;">明显</span>加快,水电出力<span style="color: black;">明显</span>下滑,风光保持稳健增长。8月原煤产量为3.7亿吨,同比增长8.1%,煤炭增产保供持续进行。<span style="color: black;">另外</span>,近期国常会再次核准核电项目,<span style="color: black;">包含</span>福建漳州二期2台机组(中国核电)和广东廉江一期2台机组(国家电投)。加上今年4月份核准的三门二期(中国核电)、海阳二期(国家电投)、陆丰核电(中广核)的6台机组,今年我国核准10台核电站,超出此前6-8台的预期,<span style="color: black;">亦</span>创近年核电核准台数新高。随着我国能源转型<span style="color: black;">连续</span>深化,核电<span style="color: black;">做为</span>基荷电源的<span style="color: black;">功效</span>越发凸显,<span style="color: black;">将来</span>我国核电核准有望维持常态化推动,核电项目稳健增长<span style="color: black;">亦</span>有利于我国能源供应的安全稳定。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">电力方面,<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>仍然<span style="color: black;">连续</span>看好火电转型新能源运营的标的,<span style="color: black;">包含</span>华电国际、大唐发电、华能国际、上海电力、福能股份和华润电力,<span style="color: black;">举荐</span>核电转新能源标的中国核电,纯新能源运营<span style="color: black;">机构</span><span style="color: black;">意见</span>关注三峡能源、中闽能源。<span style="color: black;">另外</span><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>还<span style="color: black;">举荐</span>智能配电工程运维一体化企业苏文电能,<span style="color: black;">意见</span>关注汛期来水<span style="color: black;">连续</span>偏好的桂冠电力、乌白电站有望注入<span style="color: black;">提高</span><span style="color: black;">机构</span>盈利水平的水电龙头长江电力、受益于省内市场电价<span style="color: black;">连续</span>改善的华能水电。</span></p><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9ns8I2LyRibqNESK7Mjmck2jB4xw3t5J1jPIMbVGAziaWVDElvJE1CrFKumWEYVvFzc42lbsadsEiabFicPOY5kZLA/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><a style="color: black;">金九银十行情<span style="color: black;">再也不</span>,地产竣工增速改善<span style="color: black;">显著</span></a></span></strong>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">地产新开工指标<span style="color: black;">连续</span>恶化,竣工指标单月改善<span style="color: black;">显著</span>。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">国家统计局<span style="color: black;">颁布</span>2022年1-8月份房地产运行和全国固定资产投资数据,1-8月房屋新开工面积同比下降37.2%,土地购置面积同比下降49.7%;1-8月全国房地产<span style="color: black;">研发</span>投资9.08亿元,同比下降7.4%,降幅<span style="color: black;">连续</span>扩大。房地产施工及竣工受疫情管控、资金紧缺等影响严重,1-8月房屋施工面积同比下降4.5%,房屋竣工面积同比下降21.1%,今年下半年竣工交付压力将进一步加大。1-8月份,房地产<span style="color: black;">研发</span>企业到位资金同比下降25.0%,降幅略有收窄,其中国内贷款、定金及预收款、个人按揭贷款降幅<span style="color: black;">显著</span>,地产企业现金流仍<span style="color: black;">处在</span>紧张状态。年初<span style="color: black;">败兴</span>地产政策<span style="color: black;">连续</span>回暖,<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为后续地产<span style="color: black;">需要</span>有望触底改善,消费建材板块估值有待<span style="color: black;">提高</span>。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">周期品<span style="color: black;">需要</span>较弱,价格持续回落,金九银十行情<span style="color: black;">再也不</span></span></strong><span style="color: black;">。2022年1-8月,全国累计水泥产量13.55亿吨,同比下降14.2%,受基建<span style="color: black;">需要</span>支撑影响,降幅弱于地产新开工面积降幅;8月份,全国单月水泥产量1.88亿吨,同比下降13.1%。1-8月全国累计平板玻璃产量6.89亿重量箱,同比增长0.2%。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">1)水泥:</span></strong><span style="color: black;">2022年上半年,水泥行业营业收入、归母净利润同比下降14.23%、34.28%;净利润现金比率、应收账款周转率<span style="color: black;">显现</span>大幅下滑,降至近5年最差水平。四季度水泥<span style="color: black;">需要</span>存在<span style="color: black;">必定</span>支撑,关注后续水泥<span style="color: black;">周期</span>性涨价行情。<strong style="color: blue;">2)玻璃:</strong>去年行业高景气驱动产能充分释放,今年供给增长有限。保交楼等政策推动地产竣工<span style="color: black;">逐步</span>修复,需要观察<span style="color: black;">需要</span>恢复<span style="color: black;">状况</span>。<strong style="color: blue;">3)玻纤:</strong>上半年供给<span style="color: black;">增多</span>对电子纱价格<span style="color: black;">导致</span>冲击,近期粗纱价格加速下跌,预计随着制造业景气度<span style="color: black;">提升</span>价格有望弱势复苏)。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">投资<span style="color: black;">意见</span>:<span style="color: black;">举荐</span>行业景气度回升弹性标的【上峰水泥】【旗滨集团】,关注消费建材龙头底部修复机会【东方雨虹】【三棵树】【坚朗五金】。</span></strong></p><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9ns8I2LyRibqNESK7Mjmck2jB4xw3t5J1jPIMbVGAziaWVDElvJE1CrFKumWEYVvFzc42lbsadsEiabFicPOY5kZLA/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><a style="color: black;">东方雨虹(002271):随机而动,<span style="color: black;">途径</span>变革正当时</a></strong></span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">1、B端:<span style="color: black;">途径</span>变革深耕下沉市场,非房业务<span style="color: black;">保证</span>成长<span style="color: black;">规律</span>。</span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">机构</span>在每次行业变革关键时期<span style="color: black;">即时</span><span style="color: black;">调节</span>战略方向,为业绩增长<span style="color: black;">持续</span>注入新动力:①基建时代:合作央企建筑<span style="color: black;">机构</span>,基建投<span style="color: black;">帮助</span>力<span style="color: black;">机构</span>高速增长。②地产时代:深化与地产<span style="color: black;">机构</span>合作,集采业务做大整体规模。③工建集团时代:整合直销和经销的工程<span style="color: black;">途径</span>,成立“工建集团”,打破属地界限及各<span style="color: black;">制品</span>线壁垒,<span style="color: black;">霸占</span>空白市场空间。④一体化<span style="color: black;">机构</span>时代:原有工建集团细化为“一体化<span style="color: black;">机构</span>”模式,属地化经营,<span style="color: black;">经过</span>发展合伙人&直销模式充分覆盖当地项目,弥补资源分布不均。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">2、C端:转型零售优先战略,把握发展新动力。</span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">1)民建集团:</span></strong><span style="color: black;">家装辅材市场规模巨大,但竞争激烈,集中度低。<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>预计2024年抹灰用砂浆市场空间约3269亿、瓷砖胶317亿、腻子粉188亿、固化剂133亿、美缝剂86亿元,合计约3993亿元。</span><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">机构</span><span style="color: black;">精细</span>锁定<span style="color: black;">目的</span>人群,把握C端入口。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">①经销门店:打通线上线下<span style="color: black;">途径</span>,<span style="color: black;">制品</span>整合服务带来新流量;鼓励门店雇佣专业施工队<span style="color: black;">供给</span>一站式服务;积极探索互联网新业态,打通线上线下,赋能新零售。②瓦工工长:“虹哥汇”与雨虹学院以工长为<span style="color: black;">目的</span>对象,<span style="color: black;">精细</span>把握专业人员流量入口。③家装<span style="color: black;">机构</span>:<span style="color: black;">机构</span>与头部装企深度合作,<span style="color: black;">供给</span>系统施工培训。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">2)德爱威零售:</span></strong><span style="color: black;">赋能城市合伙人,布局建涂<span style="color: black;">优秀</span>赛道。旗下“为爱翻新”平台全国范围内推行城市合伙人模式;一城一位,属地化经营,<span style="color: black;">加强</span>核心竞争力。2022年上半年,德爱威零售实现营业收入3.52亿元,同比增长47%。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">3)雨虹修缮:</span></strong><span style="color: black;">“雨虹到家”<span style="color: black;">安身</span>存量市场,构筑To C修缮服务网络。2021年,雨虹修缮推出“雨虹到家服务”,打造“互联网+居住空间改善一站式服务平台”,开启“进军C端市场”快速布局。截止2022年H1,雨虹到家服务已在全国设立317家服务中心,<span style="color: black;">创立</span>全国物业<span style="color: black;">途径</span>和到家服务生态数字化升级,创造<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>价值的C端服务事业。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">3、地产链其他行业<span style="color: black;">途径</span>变革<span style="color: black;">状况</span>与启示。</strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">1)在市场覆盖尚存在空白,<span style="color: black;">途径</span>下沉可有效<span style="color: black;">加强</span>市占率。</strong>美的集团在2008年实行经销<span style="color: black;">途径</span>变革,成立合资<span style="color: black;">营销</span><span style="color: black;">机构</span>并派驻总经理<span style="color: black;">指点</span>,以拓宽经销商在各区域<span style="color: black;">营销</span><span style="color: black;">途径</span>的<span style="color: black;">办法</span>,与东方雨虹<span style="color: black;">日前</span>实行的“一体化<span style="color: black;">机构</span>”<span style="color: black;">途径</span>变革有异曲同工之妙。<strong style="color: blue;">2)B端地产市场增长乏力,C端<span style="color: black;">途径</span>带来新动力。</strong>家居行业在面对此轮变革时,主动减缓工程<span style="color: black;">途径</span>的拓展,将目光重新聚焦于原先的To C业务。<strong style="color: blue;">3)消费者<span style="color: black;">针对</span>一站式服务的<span style="color: black;">需要</span>日益<span style="color: black;">增多</span>,<span style="color: black;">制品</span>多元化及一站式服务更为重要。</strong>一站式服务<span style="color: black;">逐步</span><span style="color: black;">作为</span>家装行业的主流,<span style="color: black;">做为</span>中游制造商,除了在<span style="color: black;">制品</span>端<span style="color: black;">持续</span>推陈出新,<span style="color: black;">开发</span>新品类之外,还要<span style="color: black;">思虑</span><span style="color: black;">怎样</span>在<span style="color: black;">制品</span><span style="color: black;">基本</span>上配套一体化服务。</span></p><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9ns8I2LyRibqNESK7Mjmck2jB4xw3t5J14UUmt9WzP94E8blolLk7rcHJUljrhOQ8NuursppXls0ibDmUSYn3X4w/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><a style="color: black;">拼多多(PDD):基本盘稳健无虞,新业务大有可为</a></strong></span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">拼多多的壁垒/差异化<span style="color: black;">优良</span>是什么?</span></strong><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">首要</span><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为拼多多存在壁垒,多多在移动互联网时代以及互联网下沉的大背景下争得先机,<span style="color: black;">经过</span><span style="color: black;">补助</span>/买量换增长的方式形成用户的原始<span style="color: black;">累积</span>。在行业监管趋严、中国互联网流量红利见顶、买量成本攀升的大背景下,拼多多已<span style="color: black;">作为</span>国内社交电商赛道的“绝版”,后来者很难模仿和超越。如今淘系和拼多多在下沉市场的用户画像乃至<span style="color: black;">举荐</span>机制上逐步趋同,拼多多的核心竞争力<span style="color: black;">源自</span>于平台的强社交属性,对比淘系仍受互联网外链开放的局限性而言,<span style="color: black;">微X</span>流量入口的运用、基于社交圈层关系优化的<span style="color: black;">举荐</span>算法,使得拼多多在<span style="color: black;">补助</span>退坡后仍保持稳健增长的实力。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;">怎样</span>看待拼多多的增长空间?</span></strong><span style="color: black;">诚然,今年上半年多多的增长韧性和宏观经济疲弱居民消费降级,以及高线城市疫情对多多低线基本盘影响有限不无关系,除此之外,<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为拼多多继续保持高增长的驱动<span style="color: black;">重点</span>在于品牌化战略,以及农业上行的<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>思路。农业线上化市场空间广阔,拼多多<span style="color: black;">已然</span>在农<span style="color: black;">制品</span>的生产、履约和<span style="color: black;">营销</span>环节上取得<span style="color: black;">明显</span>进步,<span style="color: black;">将来</span>将继续加大投入,由主站协同社区团购业务,<span style="color: black;">一起</span>探索农<span style="color: black;">制品</span>售卖的新业态。<span style="color: black;">将来</span>,<span style="color: black;">伴同</span>着品类结构<span style="color: black;">调节</span>和品牌化战略的推进,拼多多的货币化率仍有<span style="color: black;">提高</span>空间,尤其是佣金的货币化率。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">拼多多的品牌化战略<span style="color: black;">是不是</span>可行?</strong>拼多多从三个维度推行品牌化战略:<span style="color: black;">提高</span>现有品牌扶持力度、引进<span style="color: black;">优秀</span>品牌、扶持代工厂走向品牌,其中百亿<span style="color: black;">补助</span>是多多品牌化战略的重要抓手。关于拼多多品牌化的竞争<span style="color: black;">优良</span>,<span style="color: black;">针对</span>消费者<span style="color: black;">来讲</span>,仍然<span style="color: black;">能够</span>在<span style="color: black;">保准</span>平台收益、压缩<span style="color: black;">补助</span>力度的前提下借助性价比吸引价格<span style="color: black;">敏锐</span>型消费者。<span style="color: black;">针对</span>商家<span style="color: black;">来讲</span>,为了打消大品牌方对<span style="color: black;">补助</span>乱价的担忧,拼多多采取特供款和定制款的方式,打造奥特莱斯式品牌售卖市场,加速大品牌入驻;<span style="color: black;">针对</span>新锐品牌、国潮品牌、老字号初转型、品牌效应较弱对串货不<span style="color: black;">敏锐</span>的商家,<span style="color: black;">能够</span>由经销商和代理商来供货。随着多多品牌化战略的<span style="color: black;">持续</span>深入,<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为,不会<span style="color: black;">显现</span>当年淘宝天猫化过程中白牌商品被过度挤出的现象,<span style="color: black;">由于</span>拼多多的品牌化战略并未完全放弃代工厂和原有的白牌厂家,电商市场<span style="color: black;">亦</span>难以<span style="color: black;">显现</span>下一个承接白牌出走的“拼多多”。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">拼多多还有<span style="color: black;">那些</span>增长曲线值得期待?</span></strong><span style="color: black;">(1)社区团购市场出清加速,多多买菜日单量反超美团优选,利润率<span style="color: black;">连续</span>领先,UE跑通倒计时,有望带来额外的估值增量。(2)多多驿站是基于社区团购业务的快递驿站,一方面锁定社区团购的用户,使其<span style="color: black;">很难</span>回流至其他平台,将私域流量集中成闭环流量,另一方面借助快递代收与团长们打通关系,打通低线城市最后一<span style="color: black;">千米</span>的履约,并强化自有支付系统多多钱包,完善金融<span style="color: black;">制品</span>闭环系统。(3)快团团和团好货是社群团购工具小程序,放松了品类的限制、供货方和团长的限制,品类丰富度<span style="color: black;">亦</span>较高,覆盖白牌和品牌,<span style="color: black;">日前</span>强调强工具属性低运营成本,快团团仅收取技术服务费,2022年疫情下发展态势良好,战略上<span style="color: black;">来讲</span><span style="color: black;">经过</span>强私域属性的社交关系<span style="color: black;">弥补</span>社区电商形式,并进一步巩固多多买菜团长忠诚度。(4)群买买是社交代理分销机制下的品牌特卖电商平台,借助<span style="color: black;">微X</span>层级营销、以小程序的形式在<span style="color: black;">微X</span>私域内进行售卖,于拼多多的<span style="color: black;">道理</span>在于打通非标品的品牌化之路。(5)跨境电商Temu于2022年9月1日以美国为首站进行出海初尝试,<span style="color: black;">期盼</span>打造低价的全品类电商跨境电商平台,Temu平台统一对招商商品进行定价和海外履约,短期内<span style="color: black;">经过</span>定价打开市场,长远定位聚焦中端用户,并强调平台的品牌价值而非爆品策略。<span style="color: black;">日前</span>Temu在跨境电商上<span style="color: black;">累积</span>较少,<span style="color: black;">将来</span>仍需对物流、仓储、品类优化、定价策略进行优化。</span></p><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9ns8I2LyRibqNESK7Mjmck2jB4xw3t5J1bg09OIADja1Hs7Zlpo0se5L7lDJokC6w9vEufaHIOb1GWQxmIW24gg/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><a style="color: black;">五粮液(000858):旺季验证<span style="color: black;">需要</span>韧性,管理提效、估值低位,又逢布局时刻</a></strong></span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">中秋旺季<span style="color: black;">时期</span><span style="color: black;">咱们</span>跟踪部分五粮液<span style="color: black;">重点</span>消费大省,渠道反馈<span style="color: black;">状况</span>总体较为良好。动销<span style="color: black;">状况</span>来看,<span style="color: black;">途径</span>出货量总体呈现稳中有升的形势;批价走势来看,<span style="color: black;">区别</span>于以往旺季<span style="color: black;">时期</span>普五批价随着供给量<span style="color: black;">增多</span>而有所回落的规律,今年<span style="color: black;">都数</span>区域旺季<span style="color: black;">时期</span>批价坚挺,<span style="color: black;">乃至</span>略有<span style="color: black;">提升</span>;库存水平来看,旺季前<span style="color: black;">机构</span>控货,经销商及终端库存<span style="color: black;">广泛</span>较低,终端动销良好之下备货积极性较强。<span style="color: black;">机构</span>管理<span style="color: black;">连续</span>提效,旺季验证五粮液<span style="color: black;">需要</span>韧性,当前估值低位,正是布局好<span style="color: black;">机会</span>。</strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">部分投资者对<span style="color: black;">机构</span>明年成长性有所担忧,<span style="color: black;">咱们</span>认为普五有望<span style="color: black;">连续</span>享受千元价格带扩容红利,实现量价齐升,<span style="color: black;">同期</span>,经典五粮液经过今年一年的全面深度<span style="color: black;">调节</span>,23年有望打开新局面,预计明年仍可实现双位数高质量增长。21年<span style="color: black;">败兴</span>新领导班子<span style="color: black;">连续</span>深化改革促进管理和运营效率的<span style="color: black;">提高</span>。展望<span style="color: black;">将来</span>,千元价位带<span style="color: black;">需要</span>扩容支撑普五量价齐升;经典五粮液22年营销<span style="color: black;">调节</span>+品牌培育均逐步向好,23年有望开启新增长;系列酒经过换代升级和<span style="color: black;">途径</span>梳理重建<span style="color: black;">将来</span><span style="color: black;">也</span>有望贡献<span style="color: black;">机构</span>业绩增长。短期来看,2022年<span style="color: black;">机构</span>提出“营业总收入继续保持两位数的稳健增长”<span style="color: black;">目的</span>,<span style="color: black;">经过</span><span style="color: black;">调节</span>普五计划外价格及比例,<span style="color: black;">增多</span>部分文化定制酒配额支持,推动营销组织改革提效将能够有力完成。<span style="color: black;">长时间</span>看<span style="color: black;">机构</span>品牌力<span style="color: black;">持续</span><span style="color: black;">提高</span>,消费者忠诚度充分,<span style="color: black;">经过</span><span style="color: black;">途径</span>组织及经销商利润优化可激发更大的市场动能,成长空间巨大。从PE-TTM估值水平看,<span style="color: black;">机构</span><span style="color: black;">处在</span>2年/5年/10年3.30%/14.15%/53.99%分位,具备<span style="color: black;">显著</span>的修复空间,<span style="color: black;">咱们</span><span style="color: black;">连续</span>重点<span style="color: black;">举荐</span>。</span></p><img src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9ns8I2LyRibqNESK7Mjmck2jB4xw3t5J1ficMqJHmBw93hDUu3T05OcSMp3z2e6gTRwByTicJc1pJqRqDDGDptNoQ/640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1" style="width: 50%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><a style="color: black;">万科A(00000</a>2):旗下万物云上市在即,物业估值有望显性化</strong></span>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">物管IPO认可度高,基石投资者背景强大。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">万物云每股发售价为47.1港元至52.7港元,<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>发售完成后(假设不行使超额配股权)对应市值549.7亿港元至615.1亿港元。假设万物云2022年实现归母净利润增速达30%,则<span style="color: black;">思虑</span>汇率<span style="color: black;">原因</span>后,发售价对应2022年PE估值为22.4倍至25.1倍,在港股物业<span style="color: black;">机构</span>中<span style="color: black;">处在</span>第二高水平,仅次于华润万象生活,彰显市场对<span style="color: black;">机构</span>业务发展能力的高度认可。此次招股吸引了中国诚通控股以及旗下的中国国有企业混合所有制改革基金、瑞银资管、HHLR基金及YHG投资、润晖投资、淡马锡、Athos资本等<span style="color: black;">公司</span>投资者,<span style="color: black;">公司</span>类型涵盖国资、外资、私人,基石投资金额约为2.8亿美元,约占<span style="color: black;">全世界</span>发售后发行股本的3.58%。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">万物云上市有望推动物业部分估值显性化。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">万物云已<span style="color: black;">创立</span>起社区空间居住消费服务、商企和城市空间综合服务、AIoT及BPaaS<span style="color: black;">处理</span><span style="color: black;">方法</span>服务三大业务板块,形<span style="color: black;">成为了</span>强大的万物云品牌势能,且均已具备对外输出能力。上半年万物云实现营收143.5亿元,同比增长38.2%,收入规模位居行业第二,仅次于碧桂园服务;<span style="color: black;">根据</span>当前发售价,万物云上市后,市值<span style="color: black;">亦</span>将位居行业第二,仅次于华润万象生活。万物云的上市,将使得万科物业服务业务估值的显性化,有利于万科整体估值的<span style="color: black;">提高</span>。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">8月<span style="color: black;">营销</span>已现改善,后续<span style="color: black;">营销</span>拿地值得期待。</span></strong><span style="color: black;">8月<span style="color: black;">机构</span>实现<span style="color: black;">营销</span>金额309.7亿元,同比减少16.4%,降幅较7月收窄18.3个百分点,<span style="color: black;">营销</span>边际<span style="color: black;">显现</span>改善;1-8月<span style="color: black;">营销</span>金额2799亿元,同比减少36.8%。1-8月拿地金额494亿元,占<span style="color: black;">营销</span>金额比重17.6%,投资拿地<span style="color: black;">状况</span>与上半年基本一致。</span></p>03PART<span style="color: black;">会议预告</span><span style="color: black;">⊙</span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">中信建投电新 | 新能源早餐会第四十三期:华友钴业投资价值分析</span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></span></strong></span><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">会议时间</strong></span><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: 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<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: blue;"><span style="color: black;">END</span></strong></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;"><strong style="color: blue;">免责声明</strong></span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">本订阅号(<span style="color: black;">微X</span>号:中信建投证券<span style="color: black;">科研</span>)为中信建投证券股份有限<span style="color: black;">机构</span>(下<span style="color: black;">叫作</span>“中信建投”)<span style="color: black;">科研</span>发展部依法设立、独立运营的<span style="color: black;">独一</span>官方订阅号。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">本订阅号不是中信建投<span style="color: black;">科研</span>报告的发布平台,所载内容均来自于中信建投已正式发布的<span style="color: black;">科研</span>报告或对报告进行的跟踪与<span style="color: black;">诠释</span>,订阅者若<span style="color: black;">运用</span>所载资料,有可能会因缺乏对完整报告的<span style="color: black;">认识</span>而对其中关键假设、评级、<span style="color: black;">目的</span>价等内容产生误解。提请订阅者参阅中信建投已发布的完整证券<span style="color: black;">科研</span>报告,仔细阅读其所附各项声明、信息披露事项及<span style="color: black;">危害</span>提示,关注<span style="color: black;">关联</span>的分析、预测能够成立的关键假设<span style="color: black;">要求</span>,关注投资评级和证券<span style="color: black;">目的</span>价格的预测时间周期,并准确理解投资评级的含义。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">中信建投对本订阅号所载资料的准确性、<span style="color: black;">靠谱</span>性、时效性及完整性不作任何明示或暗示的<span style="color: black;">保准</span>。本订阅号中资料、意见等仅<span style="color: black;">表率</span><span style="color: black;">源自</span>证券<span style="color: black;">科研</span>报告发布当日的判断,<span style="color: black;">关联</span><span style="color: black;">科研</span>观点可依据中信建投后续发布的证券<span style="color: black;">科研</span>报告在不发布<span style="color: black;">通告</span>的情形下作出更改。中信建投的<span style="color: black;">营销</span>人员、交易人员以及其他专业人士可能会依据<span style="color: black;">区别</span>假设和标准、采用<span style="color: black;">区别</span>的分析<span style="color: black;">办法</span>而口头或书面<span style="color: black;">发布</span>与本订阅号中资料意见不一致的市场评论和/或观点。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">本订阅号发布的内容并非投资决策服务,在任何情形下都不<span style="color: black;">形成</span>对接收本订阅号内容受众的任何投资<span style="color: black;">意见</span>。订阅者应当充分<span style="color: black;">认识</span>各类投资<span style="color: black;">危害</span>,<span style="color: black;">按照</span><span style="color: black;">自己</span><span style="color: black;">状况</span>自主做出投资决策并<span style="color: black;">自动</span>承担投资<span style="color: black;">危害</span>。订阅者<span style="color: black;">按照</span>本订阅号内容做出的任何决策与中信建投或<span style="color: black;">关联</span>作者无关。</span></p>
<p style="font-size: 16px; color: black; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 15px;"><span style="color: black;">本<span style="color: black;">制品</span>仅为中信建投所有。未经中信建投事先书面许可,任何<span style="color: black;">公司</span>和/或个人不得以任何形式转发、翻版、复制、发布或引用本<span style="color: black;">制品</span>的<span style="color: black;">所有</span>或部分内容,<span style="color: black;">也</span>不得从未经中信建投书面授权的任何<span style="color: black;">公司</span>、个人或其运营的<span style="color: black;">媒介</span>平台接收、翻版、复制或引用本<span style="color: black;">制品</span>的<span style="color: black;">所有</span>或部分内容。版权所有,违者必究。</span></p>
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